Texas Spring 2023

[Iceresistance]

Rainfall is crazy with the random lightning.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’d start watching the line, as it looks like it’s starting to break up a bit into semi-discrete cells, and the streamer showers ahead of it are getting a little more potent. This looks to line up with the hrrr, which shows the line stretching out west to east across dfw and becoming a conveyor belt for storms. Think some of these may start exhibiting rotation over the next couple hours

[Iceresistance]

I’d start watching the line, as it looks like it’s starting to break up a bit into semi-discrete cells, and the streamer showers ahead of it are getting a little more potent. This looks to line up with the hrrr, which shows the line stretching out west to east across dfw and becoming a conveyor belt for storms. Think some of these may start exhibiting rotation over the next couple hours

There is already a couplet SW of Decatur, TX

[txtwister78]

SPC has nudged the overall severe threat a bit further south and now has the Austin metro in the slight risk with higher tornado and significant hail probs. Think this trend (shifting the threat south) will continue into the afternoon with future updates.

[cheezyWXguy]

Storm over ft worth looks to be starting to rotate

[rwfromkansas]

Pouring in N FW. Almost up to an inch today! Nice.

[Ntxw]

Complex is moving over DFW airport. Behind it reports of 30-40mph wind, heavy rain, and some small hail. No warnings thus far. Temps do drop into the low-mid 50s behind it.

[EnnisTx]

Storm over ft worth looks to be starting to rotate

Sure does, and that notch looks interesting.

[bubba hotep]

This looks like it for DFW. The threat after this batch of storms should be pretty reduced as there is an outflow boundary pushing SE in their wake. The main threat would appear to be later this afternoon as storms fire and interact with that boundary as it sags southward.

[rwfromkansas]

There is still so much we don't know about weather. Even SPC was raising risks earlier. But, it's 50 degrees. I feel pretty safe now. Just a nice rain for us. I feel concerned for folks south though....

[Ntxw]

There is still so much we don't know about weather. Even SPC was raising risks earlier. But, it's 50 degrees. I feel pretty safe now. Just a nice rain for us. I feel concerned for folks south though....

Yeah if we got up to 70 and DP was in the mid 60s probably more dangerous, but the short term guidance were struggling with the warm front. Preconditioning parameters didn't stick out to me from the meso-analysis, despite the system being pretty decent.

[bubba hotep]

There is still so much we don't know about weather. Even SPC was raising risks earlier. But, it's 50 degrees. I feel pretty safe now. Just a nice rain for us. I feel concerned for folks south though....

Yeah if we got up to 70 and DP was in the mid 60s probably more dangerous, but the short term guidance were struggling with the warm front. Preconditioning parameters didn't stick out to me from the meso-analysis, despite the system being pretty decent.

Hi-res models have struggled with this morning's storms and have constantly tried to kill them off. While not super organized, they have produced a localized cold pool that the models missed. The 12z HRRR had storms firing well west of DFW at 17z, the 16z had spotty showers over DFW at 17z, but the reality is that a decent little batch of storms is pushing through the metroplex.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think this is the final round. Temps are definitely cooler behind the boundary, but are quickly recovering between abilene and mineral wells up to the red river. This probably eliminates at least some of the metro from the tornado threat by pushing the warm front further south, but hail/wind producers could still be possible north of the front if another round does in fact occur

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0623.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261820Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is forecast over central TX by mid
afternoon coincident with the leading edge of ascent/cirrus nosing
into the Big Country. Additional storms may develop near the
outflow/warm front intersection.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field south of an outflow boundary and east of a dryline. Surface
temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s deg F with dewpoints in
the mid 50s near San Angelo and upper 60s near the warm front.
Forecast soundings show minimal convective inhibition remaining
across central TX as the boundary layer continues to
warm/destabilize. Water-vapor imagery shows the leading edge of
cirrus and implied ascent spreading quickly east across the Permian
Basin and into the Big Country. As a result, convective initiation
is expected in the next hour or so near Abilene. Once the remaining
cap is breached, expecting explosive updraft growth with a hail risk
quickly developing. Effective shear 40-50 kt and MLCAPE in excess
of 3000 J/kg will rapidly promote supercell development. Large to
giant hail (diameters 1 to 3+ inches) is expected. A tornado risk
will likely focus near the warm front where relatively backed
low-level flow augmenting hodograph size, and surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads are less than 20 deg will reside. A
strong tornado may occur if an established supercell(s) can interact
favorably with the warm frontal zone.

..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1651295279277285376

[txtwister78]

SPC continues to shift/narrow the threat today from the Waco region down to the Austin metro along the I-35 corridor in their latest update as observational trends have suggested. Good news is that the DFW metro threat has significantly been reduced.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1651313183569657860

[Iceresistance]

The Supercell near Granbury is looking very mean

[Iceresistance]

Warm Sector storms SW of DFW could become tornadic very quickly.

Tornado Warning for Tyler, TX

[Ntxw]

Warm Sector storms SW of DFW could become tornadic very quickly.

Tornado Warning for Tyler, TX

That boundary to the south of I-20, warm front. DPs down there are in the 60s and 70s further south. Couple of good structured supercells well into the enhanced region. Bulging dry-line in central Texas should help focus some development from Hillsboro, Waco into C-Tx.