ATL: MILTON - Models

[TampaWxLurker]

6z Euro is WEAKER and comes in around Bradenton / Sarasota and moving almost due E across the state

Link or image?

[Poonwalker]

The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

I thought I read the HAFS-A OR B had been one of the most accurate. Anyone else read that or know if true which one?

They were 10-15 percent more accurate in the 3-5 day window for track on all the storms last year. Reposted this to point out that I wasn’t talking about this storm.

[NDG]

06z Euro right on top of Bradenton.

[tolakram]

6z Euro is WEAKER and comes in around Bradenton / Sarasota and moving almost due E across the state

Link or image?

6Z Euro

[NDG]

06z Is not only weaker but shows landfall at 7 AM Thursday morning, a whole 48 hrs from now.

A whole 7 hours later than the 06z GFS

[Pasmorade]

6z Euro is WEAKER and comes in around Bradenton / Sarasota and moving almost due E across the state

Link or image?

6Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/CtmvCZo.gif

Why are all the models initializing Milton way weaker than it really is?

[DESTRUCTION5]

6z Euro is WEAKER and comes in around Bradenton / Sarasota and moving almost due E across the state

Link or image?

6Z Euro


https://i.imgur.com/CtmvCZo.gif

Euro in line with its ensembles now.

[tolakram]

Link or image?

6Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/CtmvCZo.gif

Why are all the models initializing Milton way weaker than it really is?

Which models? For the globals it's resolution with that earlier small eye, they just can't see it. Really doesn't matter as the steering is similar. You look for strength trends in the globals, not accuracy. I haven't looked at the hurricane models yet this morning.

[TampaWxLurker]

06z Is not only weaker but shows landfall at 7 AM Thursday morning, a whole 48 hrs from now.

That's the one pretty consistent trends from most of the big models over the last few days is pushing it further and further back slowly into early Thursday morning. Euro also showing that hard right turn just after landfall that other models are picking up on.

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like they shifted the track a bit south because the track prior, Lake Okeechobee was completely out of the track and now it is partially back in. Also, Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties are now under Tropical storm warnings. I think the Euro shifted south as well to Sarasota.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like they shifted the track a bit south because the track prior, Lake Okeechobee was completely out of the track and now it is partially back in. Also, Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties are now under Tropical storm warnings. I think the Euro shifted south as well to Sarasota.

6z euro is right over bradenton, 0z was over the bay entrance. Models seem to be converging on Bay/Bradenton, southerly ones like UK and CMC moved north, northerly ones moved south, Bradenton/Bay channel is the middle.

[BobHarlem]

12z earlies. Consolidated more around Bay/Bradenton with exit around Titusville/Canaveral (Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge/Seashore). Still not good for Tampa .

TVCN goes right over Anna Maria Island and up the bay over skyway bridge then over the NWS Tampa offices in Ruskin.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

NAVGEM continues to be alone in showing a tropical landfall on Bermuda. All the other models show full absorption by the front or, at most, a strung-out subtropical system.

[tolakram]

NAVGEM continues to be alone in showing a tropical landfall on Bermuda. All the other models show full absorption by the front or, at most, a strung-out subtropical system.

https://i.imgur.com/vKVHu1G.png

If the NAVGEM shows it then I think it's safe to plan for a nice day on the beach. Facetious of course. Mostly.

[CycloysisNegative]

NAVGEM continues to be alone in showing a tropical landfall on Bermuda. All the other models show full absorption by the front or, at most, a strung-out subtropical system.

https://i.imgur.com/vKVHu1G.png

If the NAVGEM shows it then I think it's safe to plan for a nice day on the beach. Facetious of course. Mostly.

Well NAVGEM doesn’t stand for (Not Accurate Very Glitchy Extremely Misleading) for nothing

[NDG]

Close up look of latest 12z early models, straight up I-4!!!
TVCX which the NHC also follows is even a little more to the left.
Flashing consensus line is based on the models I follow the most, whish they had ICON as well, not that it would make that much of a difference to the consensus.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Those 06z Euro ensembles got me

[TampaWxLurker]

https://i.postimg.cc/CxpJ9Ntj/vvvv.png

What's the trend with these?

[jhpigott]

https://i.postimg.cc/CxpJ9Ntj/vvvv.png

Interesting. I count only 3 members of the 06z Euro ensembles that are north of the NHC track. The rest are south, some significantly so