Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[Nimbus]

Seeing some hints on the models for snow this weekend in eastern NC. Some models show it in relation to the gulf system while some others dont.

12Z Euro has a 963 mb low in the same area as that GFS 18Z run with the 959 mb super storm but the track is further offshore not over Long Island this run. So it wasn't a pure GFS fantasy. The Polar vortex has a passing lobe that could kink the jet stream a little more than we are projecting 6 days out. I just hope we don't get ghosted in the last 36 hours with a major shift that surprises everyone in emergency planning. For example we've got cold air at the surface from the first frontal passage and ice takes out power fast and you can't plow it.

[3090]

Seeing some hints on the models for snow this weekend in eastern NC. Some models show it in relation to the gulf system while some others dont.

12Z Euro has a 963 mb low in the same area as that GFS 18Z run with the 959 mb super storm but the track is further offshore not over Long Island this run. So it wasn't a pure GFS fantasy. The Polar vortex has a passing lobe that could kink the jet stream a little more than we are projecting 6 days out. I just hope we don't get ghosted in the last 36 hours with a major shift that surprises everyone in emergency planning. For example we've got cold air at the surface from the first frontal passage and ice takes out power fast and you can't plow it.

Are we talking along the gulf coast here?

[Jag95]

The Canadian is showing some 30kt winds and Gulf effect precip on Saturday. Wouldn't be surprising to see some flurries north of Tampa if that was to verify. The 18Z GFS still suppressed.

<edit> Also, the Canadian shows it at 955 mbs off the NE coast.

[Kingarabian]

Seeing some hints on the models for snow this weekend in eastern NC. Some models show it in relation to the gulf system while some others dont.

12Z Euro has a 963 mb low in the same area as that GFS 18Z run with the 959 mb super storm but the track is further offshore not over Long Island this run. So it wasn't a pure GFS fantasy. The Polar vortex has a passing lobe that could kink the jet stream a little more than we are projecting 6 days out. I just hope we don't get ghosted in the last 36 hours with a major shift that surprises everyone in emergency planning. For example we've got cold air at the surface from the first frontal passage and ice takes out power fast and you can't plow it.

That's unfortunately likely to be the case here. But I think will come down to the gulf low's strength and just how close it is to the gulf coast over the next 48 hrs. Euro/CMC/ICON are in pretty good agreement on the low being close to the coast. GFS has the low farther away from the gulf coast.

[TallyTracker]

I remember a decent signal for snow and ice along the Gulf Coast about a week out for last year’s snowstorm. The signal did wax and wane a little, but generally it got stronger as the week progressed.

This storm does not appear to have quite the same strength of signal nor the consistency on the models. It’s still possible, but anything more than flurries is definitely an outlier outcome at this time.

[Nimbus]

Seeing some hints on the models for snow this weekend in eastern NC. Some models show it in relation to the gulf system while some others dont.

12Z Euro has a 963 mb low in the same area as that GFS 18Z run with the 959 mb super storm but the track is further offshore not over Long Island this run. So it wasn't a pure GFS fantasy. The Polar vortex has a passing lobe that could kink the jet stream a little more than we are projecting 6 days out. I just hope we don't get ghosted in the last 36 hours with a major shift that surprises everyone in emergency planning. For example we've got cold air at the surface from the first frontal passage and ice takes out power fast and you can't plow it.

Are we talking along the gulf coast here?

Freezing rain line is in the vicinity of the coast with some model runs. Wind out of the NW keeps the warmer gulf from moderating the land surface temps. Also the potential for blizzard conditions in the NE if this system bombs into the 950's and hugs the coast .

[Jag95]

I remember a decent signal for snow and ice along the Gulf Coast about a week out for last year’s snowstorm. The signal did wax and wane a little, but generally it got stronger as the week progressed.

This storm does not appear to have quite the same strength of signal nor the consistency on the models. It’s still possible, but anything more than flurries is definitely an outlier outcome at this time.

True. Even the ones showing a more northerly path are lacking on timing. The models would have to majorly change for anything on the northern GOM. And my 72-hr window for believing is fast approaching.

But, I think the FL upper west coast has a good chance for flurries or even light snow. The Canadian sounding shows snow around Tampa Saturday night, and even the Euro is marginal. IF they don't change again.

[Kingarabian]

I agree the gulf coast signal is weaker than last years. Still pretty legit right now for SC/NC. All the models show that cut off low too btw.

[MississippiWx]

The ensembles showing a wetter system just isn’t carrying over to the operational models. We had a slight uptick earlier today, but the disturbances are just too out of sync. Likely just very dry cold coming in this weekend for the Gulf States. Some lucky areas may get some passing snow showers on the north side of any precip that falls, but that’s about the extent of it. Bring on spring. Dry cold sucks.

[Ivanhater]

The ensembles showing a wetter system just isn’t carrying over to the operational models. We had a slight uptick earlier today, but the disturbances are just too out of sync. Likely just very dry cold coming in this weekend for the Gulf States. Some lucky areas may get some passing snow showers on the north side of any precip that falls, but that’s about the extent of it. Bring on spring. Dry cold sucks.

Yeah. With the high struggling to get above freezing Saturday, I'm ready for 80s ASAP

[Nimbus]

The ensembles showing a wetter system just isn’t carrying over to the operational models. We had a slight uptick earlier today, but the disturbances are just too out of sync. Likely just very dry cold coming in this weekend for the Gulf States. Some lucky areas may get some passing snow showers on the north side of any precip that falls, but that’s about the extent of it. Bring on spring. Dry cold sucks.

The latest Tue morning model runs are not showing a closed off moisture pumping low in the gulf.
Cold northwest wind will spike power demand for heating in the south but maybe no ice

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro seem to have switched in regards to the strength of the gulf low and how much moisture it'll provide. Not surprising.

[Steve]

It's cold this morning.

[BigB0882]

It's cold this morning.

Sure is. It was down to 19 IMBY and I live south of I-10 (just barely) so that's quite rare. Hasn't been this cold since the big snowstorm last year when we bottomed out in the single digits.

[3090]

GFS and Euro seem to have switched in regards to the strength of the gulf low and how much moisture it'll provide. Not surprising.

What does this or may mean for the gulf coast now? Thanks!

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro seem to have switched in regards to the strength of the gulf low and how much moisture it'll provide. Not surprising.

What does this or may mean for the gulf coast now? Thanks!

In terms of the gulf coast it looks about the same as previous runs with minimal winter weather. GFS still has winter impacts for some parts of GA/SC/NC.

[Kingarabian]

12z/18z models with good agreement across the board for snowfall in northern parts of GA and SC/NC.

[Powellrm]

12z/18z models with good agreement across the board for snowfall in northern parts of GA and SC/NC.

Only with ICON being the outlier. ICON tends to pick up on trends early and stick to its guns. I’m keeping my eye on what the ICON does in the next 24 hours. It’s keeping the low well off the NC coast.

[Kingarabian]

12z/18z models with good agreement across the board for snowfall in northern parts of GA and SC/NC.

Only with ICON being the outlier. ICON tends to pick up on trends early and stick to its guns. I’m keeping my eye on what the ICON does in the next 24 hours. It’s keeping the low well off the NC coast.

ICON is the driest out of the bunch but still manages to dump 0.5 to 3 inches of snow, close to Savannah to eastern NC.

[Powellrm]

12z/18z models with good agreement across the board for snowfall in northern parts of GA and SC/NC.

Only with ICON being the outlier. ICON tends to pick up on trends early and stick to its guns. I’m keeping my eye on what the ICON does in the next 24 hours. It’s keeping the low well off the NC coast.

Looks like ICON has indeed shifted towards towards the consensus output of the other models. Will check again this evening.
ICON is the driest out of the bunch but still manages to dump 0.5 to 3 inches of snow, close to Savannah to eastern NC.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgWQFybF/snodpc-acc-imp-us-ma.png