ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

movement of eye clearly visible on VIS loop...drifting NNE

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I wonder if she is close to be a hurricane

[wxman57]

Just had a gust of 32 mph. Strongest yet.

You know I was just commenting to my wife it feels stronger wind wise now then all of last night

Tropical storm force winds are just now moving into Miami from the south. They extend from Miami Beach southwest through the keys. Inflow into Fay, but no heavy squalls around Miami currently.

[ConvergenceZone]

movement of eye clearly visible on VIS loop...drifting NNE

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I wonder if she is close to be a hurricane

I still think it reached hurricane status regardless of what they are saying.., even if just for a short time, but that's just my opinion.

[KWT]

I'd say probably 30-35 degrees would be the motion currently but its foward speed has slowed right down, also the Vis imagery really is impressive at the moment!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

I still think it reached hurricane status regardless of what they are saying.., even if just for a short time, but that's just my opinion.

Have you seen all of the data? If that is not the case, I would personally avoid these judgments.

Remember that there have been numerous occasions when people (falsely) indicated a TC was stronger than reality.

The strongest winds may have not mixed to the surface in this case.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Ok i will ask again..any pro or mets comments appreciated!
Just a question....What are the chances she never makes it to the east coast of florida before she turns back west into the gulf??

I think very slim. She should make it to the Atlantic...and that is where the "Fun" will begin and where my worry begins as well.

In 52 years, I've never even considered putting storm shutters up for a TS -- especially one coming from the west -- but this turn-back situation has me now very worried. Gusts are already too high to start shuttering now so I'm just going to pray this goes east over us and then does a N turn instead of a direct loop back. I don't hope this on Jax (or other areas), but at least they have time to get ready today. It's very likely that I will shutter for every storm going forward. Fay has taught some good lessons.

[cheezyWXguy]

I still think it reached hurricane status regardless of what they are saying.., even if just for a short time, but that's just my opinion.

Have you seen all of the data? If that is not the case, I would personally avoid these judgments.

Its just his opinion...and besides I can see why he would think that, since the pressure was in the 980's and it seems a little hard to believe that it was just 60mph at 986mb (989at the time, still seems low). Hell, it could be a hurricane right now based on that appearance...data likely does not support it but it may be close.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think it reached hurricane status regardless of what they are saying.., even if just for a short time, but that's just my opinion.

Have you seen all of the data? If that is not the case, I would personally avoid these judgments.

Remember that there have been numerous occasions when people (falsely) indicated a TC was stronger than reality.

The strongest winds may have not mixed to the surface in this case.

Hey! I can have my opinions! I'm not twisting anyone's arms to agree with me.....

[MiamiensisWx]

My response wasn't an insult, Convergence. I would actually like to see the evidence for your views; I'm interested.

I haven't seen any data that suggests Fay attained hurricane status; I may have overlooked some things.

[Air Force Met]

Reading my mind again Kent?!! I am interested as well AFMet

I think with the upper level pattern...and now that it has an inner core...given it will spend some time over the Gulf Stream...the chances this makes at least a Cat 1 hurricane are good. As far as its final resting place? N FL and into the GoM or GA like the GFDL...too early. I think it spends a little more time over water than the NHC track...and gets stronger though. The landfall looks OK...somewhere near 30N...give or take 30 miles.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

You should all take a look at the 12z GFS. It stalls it off the central florida coats for 60 hours and then moves it back west towards Tampa.

[cycloneye]

The latest: Getting very close to the big lake O:

[ALhurricane]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

LOL, 9-11 hrs. I'm sure the people in South Florida will be thrilled.

[gatorcane]

Fay is just barely moving as of late though ALhurricane so GFS may be accurate. Personally I don't see it exiting the East Coast of Florida today, probably later tonight or tomorrow EVEN if it does which I'm not so sure it will anymore.

[Air Force Met]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

[gatorcane]

AFM..hmmm.I disagree so we shall see what happens

[ALhurricane]

:uarrow:

Fay is just barely moving as of late though ALhurricane so GFS may be accurate. Personally I don't see it exiting the East Coast of Florida today, probably later tonight or tomorrow EVEN if it does which I'm not so sure it will anymore.

GFS doesn't have it moving offshore until around 18z tomorrow. As my post said, she should be near the coast late this evening or sometime after midnight...still quicker than the GFS. She is still moving at about 7-9 mph.

[tallywx]

Don't look now, but a weather station at Glades Electric Coop in the "eyewall" is sustained at 53 mph from the SE right now. Had a peak gust to 65 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMOORE5

I'm not sure if it's the same station, but a FAWN station in Clewiston is also sustained at 53 mph (at NWS specifications for both height and instrumentation).

http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/station.php?id=405

EDIT: they are two distinct stations. The latter is at the Airglades Airport west of Clewiston. Both are currently in the "eyewall."

[Ivanhater]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

Well hopefully that means she gets further north so she wont have any water when she pushes back west