ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

I love how model runs are so easily discounted. I remember the GFS run on Fay when she was around Puerto Rico that showed her going through the DR and under Cuba called a garbage run,. Turned out the solutions were followed by the other models and turned out to be accurate.

[jhpigott]

Just had a gust of 32 mph. Strongest yet.

You know I was just commenting to my wife it feels stronger wind wise now then all of last night

Tropical storm force winds are just now moving into Miami from the south. They extend from Miami Beach southwest through the keys. Inflow into Fay, but no heavy squalls around Miami currently.

question - do you think we will see tropical storm winds moving into the WPB metro areas from the south as well as the day progresses??

[ALhurricane]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

I love how model runs are so easily discounted. I remember the GFS run on Fay when she was around Puerto Rico that showed her going through the DR and under Cuba called a garbage run,. Turned out the solutions were followed by the other models and turned out to be accurate.

I discount models or hold them in question when they can't get the first 6 hours right.

[HurricaneHunter914]

HOLY COW!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Now the eye is even visible on IR! I might be a little over excited, but that's scary too me.

[Air Force Met]

The 12z GFS is already too slow in Fay's current movement. At Fay's current speed and heading, it should be near the coast in 9-11 hours, much earlier than the GFS is showing.

Agreed. This will be out over water later this evening...not tomorrow at 12Z like the GFS is showing.

Well hopefully that means she gets further north so she wont have any water when she pushes back west

Ithink it pushes out near or south of the Cape...and it will spend a while over water.

[KWT]

I agree whilst the motion has slowed down just recently its still not going to take another 18-24hrs to get into the Atlantic, which suggests this will have time to strengthen over the Atlantic waters. I also still think that this will bend back west towards the far northern gulf of Mexico but we shall see, the quicker the motion now the further north it will get before that changes...and the stronger it will get as well I feel, we shall see what happens!

[Ivanhater]

Ithink it pushes out near or south of the Cape...and it will spend a while over water.

Oh AFM, I meant in the Gulf, Further north it goes now, if she went back west, wouldnt have much water over the Gulf...Hopefully

[RL3AO]

Thats pretty crazy.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I love how model runs are so easily discounted. I remember the GFS run on Fay when she was around Puerto Rico that showed her going through the DR and under Cuba called a garbage run,. Turned out the solutions were followed by the other models and turned out to be accurate.

I discount models or hold them in question when they can't get the first 6 hours right.[/quote]

The position of Fay now might be a couple hours off where the GFS has it. Hardly enough to discount the entire solution.

[Air Force Met]

AFM..hmmm.I disagree so we shall see what happens

I am not sure what you are seeing. I still get a movement of about 8-9 mph. Given that it is 90 miles from the coast...

Well...do the math.

[RL3AO]

Looks to me moving NE on radar instead of NNE.

[Steve]

I agree Miami. I'd like to see that too. A hurricane is when a tropical cyclone reaches the point where sustained (1 minute I think) wind speeds reach 74mph. It's not about pressure (Bastardi) or "the look" (Others). Because Fay has been so close to land and buoys, I'd like to see evidence of that 74mph sustained winds before I'd guess it was or might have been a hurricane.

Steve

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest ramsdis ir image now shows whites in the center...visible looking very good. Shear has obviously lessened, and I cant see what will prevent this from becoming a hurricane after this enters water again. In fact, I think this could become a pretty decent hurricane if it manages to stay over water for a long enough period of time.

[gatorcane]

AFM..hmmm.I disagree so we shall see what happens

I am not sure what you are seeing. I still get a movement of about 8-9 mph. Given that it is 90 miles from the coast...

Well...do the math.

I expect her to gradually slow down as the day goes on, thus taking longer to get to the coast.

[hcane27]

According to the position statement, it is at the same latitude and longitude as it was at the time of the last advisory .... hmmm.. unless I miss my guess, that would be pretty slow on the movement

[KWT]

Fay does look like its on a NE track, I agree withthe others this is coming off a good bit quicker then the models which should give this about another 12-24hrs over water then the GFS expects.

Onme thing that probably will limit the system is upwelling, we saw it with Bertha and unless this gets far enough east into the gulf this will probably suffer the same fate given its foward motion pretty much stops once this gets int othe water...of course given its moving faster it may well get further east than the models prog before stopping.

[Steve]

>>Well hopefully that means she gets further north so she wont have any water when she pushes back west

Come on Ivanhater. You know that while you hate the destruction and don't want to see your fair city rattled again, you're a junkie for the excitement. I'm not going to lie and say anything else either. I don't have a house anymore, so I really don't have anything to lose.

Steve

[Scorpion]

I wonder if this can strengthen a little over Lake O

[HURAKAN]

Faytastic

[cpdaman]

AFM..hmmm.I disagree so we shall see what happens

I am not sure what you are seeing. I still get a movement of about 8-9 mph. Given that it is 90 miles from the coast...

Well...do the math.

i was thinking that with the trough axis soon pushing eastward/NE'ward that this may leave fay over the eastern central part of the state sometime between 9pm and midnite