ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Maineman]

wweather.us' Jack now compiling model situation in a livestream

https://www.facebook.com/weatherdotus/videos/2003473566549494/

[stormreader]

This could be the most dangerous storm the FL Keys have seen since 1935. At the very least, since Donna and Betsy in the 60s. Awful situation unfolding.

Yes. Very little doubt about it. I used the word ferocious to describe the storm in the keys and SW Fl. Your comparison with some of the greatest storms of all time is an appropriate one. Pressure falls are ahead of schedule. A safe bet would be that we have a 150 mph storm off the SW Fl coast tomorrow. The latent energy within this system, stored there since it was a "pouch" is perhaps the strongest of any storm on record. And even if it doesn't make Cat 5 (and it very well could), the gusts in the right front quadrant in the Naples-Fort Myers area might reach 175 mph. It will be a fearful experience for those who stayed.

[AdamFirst]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

That doesn't look like Key West to me. I could be wrong though.

[WeatherGuesser]

That NWS Bunker in the Keys that was stated to be good for 220 MPH winds in the article posted a couple of pages back .... is it fully water tight if the surge overwhelms it?

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092101
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 23 20170909
205130 2510N 07949W 6962 03118 9996 +096 +082 116064 065 043 002 00
205200 2510N 07952W 6966 03112 9991 +099 +087 117061 061 042 002 00
205230 2510N 07955W 6961 03117 9986 +101 +089 117060 060 042 002 00
205300 2511N 07957W 6961 03116 9989 +099 +091 116060 061 040 003 00
205330 2511N 08000W 6965 03113 9987 +100 +093 117061 063 041 002 00
205400 2511N 08003W 6961 03116 9979 +106 +091 115060 061 041 002 00
205430 2512N 08006W 6961 03117 9984 +102 +091 114061 062 041 002 00
205500 2512N 08009W 6961 03117 9990 +098 +093 111061 062 040 002 00
205530 2512N 08012W 6962 03116 9989 +101 +085 108059 059 041 002 03
205600 2512N 08014W 6963 03117 9988 +102 +085 106061 061 041 002 03
205630 2513N 08017W 6960 03118 9989 +100 +087 103061 061 /// /// 03
205700 2513N 08020W 6964 03114 9983 +105 +085 104061 061 /// /// 03
205730 2513N 08023W 6964 03115 9981 +107 +078 103062 064 /// /// 03
205800 2513N 08026W 6963 03114 9983 +106 +077 101062 063 /// /// 03
205830 2513N 08029W 6960 03117 9986 +102 +079 097060 060 /// /// 03
205900 2513N 08032W 6962 03115 9991 +098 +081 097060 061 /// /// 03
205930 2513N 08035W 6965 03113 9993 +097 +083 094059 059 /// /// 03
210000 2513N 08037W 6961 03114 9987 +100 +088 092056 056 /// /// 03
210030 2513N 08040W 6964 03113 9984 +105 +077 090057 058 /// /// 03
210100 2513N 08043W 6963 03115 9985 +104 +072 088058 060 /// /// 03

[catskillfire51]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

That doesn't look like Key West to me. I could be wrong though.

Its not, its been going around Facebook but it is not real.

[Raebie]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

Are you sure that isn't Cuba? Hard to believe it's that bad in Key West right now.

[westcoastnative]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

Is that a legitimate video? I ask because the live cam at Southernmost point in Key West looks much different. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45p ... Novobilsky

I know the posted video is a realistic expectation for what is coming (and from what I'm reading, the surge will be worse), but I am wondering if that video is of current conditions in Key West.

Edited to add: I refreshed after I posted and saw the comments above. Sorry for a duplicate post.

[CaptinCrunch]

Back a page is a like to live cam in KW

[otowntiger]

Yes that is probably more likely, like I said those wind gusts forecasts by the GFS might be too conservative in some areas, but hopefully not

I'm thinking some of these could be on the high side, esp ones like Orlando and Jax. These are based on the GFS which obviously Is showing a track east of the official forecast track. 30-40 miles east would make a big difference. Also the GFS is going bunkers with the RI up to landfall which is unrealistic in my opinion. I agree that Tampa is underdone though.

12z Euro which is further west than the GFS shows wind gusts around 90 mph around UCF, 95 mph around downtown and around 100 mph just west of Ocoee up to near 110 mph in NW Orange County.

on the other hand the NWS shows 75 for the western half of Orange county, max gusts. That is a is a pretty big difference but I know the NWS would be more on the conservative side. I know Irma is huge but it's hard to believe we could get cat 2 winds from so far away. I do think it could get a little dicey around here should she 'wobble' just 20-30 miles further east. I guess that is possible.

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Areas affected...south Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 481...

Valid 092012Z - 092215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 481 continues.

SUMMARY...Limited tornado risk may gradually increase across south
Florida over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar loops show Irma moving
west-northwest along the northern coast of Cuba at this time, with
the eye almost due south of Miami. Somewhat stronger convective
cells are currently being observed within a disorganized outer band
arcing from the Bahamas northwest into Miami-Dade and Broward
counties, and then southwest across Monroe and southern Collier
counties and then offshore. Within these cells -- particularly
between the Bahamas and the southeast Florida coast -- some rotation
has been observed over the past hour. With low-level helicity
increasing slowly across south Florida, and more
steadily/aggressively across the Keys (0-3 km SRH doubling over the
past hour and a half to the 700 to 900 m2/s2 range) nearer to the
center of Irma, expect tornado risk to slowly increase over the next
several hours.

..Goss/Marsh.. 09/09/2017

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092111
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 24 20170909
210130 2513N 08046W 6961 03117 9986 +104 +075 091057 058 /// /// 03
210200 2513N 08049W 6961 03117 9992 +097 +087 092057 057 /// /// 03
210230 2513N 08052W 6962 03116 9991 +099 +087 092059 059 /// /// 03
210300 2513N 08055W 6963 03116 9989 +101 +086 088060 060 /// /// 03
210330 2512N 08057W 6962 03116 9986 +103 +083 086061 061 /// /// 03
210400 2511N 08100W 6963 03116 9986 +103 +080 085061 062 /// /// 03
210430 2510N 08103W 6962 03117 9990 +100 +079 083060 061 /// /// 03
210500 2509N 08106W 6963 03114 9987 +101 +077 083062 063 /// /// 03
210530 2508N 08108W 6962 03113 9984 +104 +070 083063 064 /// /// 03
210600 2507N 08111W 6964 03111 9982 +105 +068 084064 064 /// /// 03
210630 2506N 08114W 6963 03112 9978 +107 +071 084064 064 /// /// 03
210700 2505N 08116W 6962 03113 9975 +110 +065 082064 064 /// /// 03
210730 2505N 08119W 6964 03112 9978 +108 +067 080063 064 /// /// 03
210800 2504N 08122W 6963 03112 9978 +108 +071 078062 062 /// /// 03
210830 2503N 08125W 6962 03113 9981 +104 +080 078063 063 043 002 03
210900 2502N 08127W 6963 03112 9983 +103 +078 076061 062 042 003 00
210930 2501N 08130W 6962 03111 9981 +104 +078 074059 059 043 004 00
211000 2500N 08133W 6961 03112 9979 +105 +082 071057 058 042 005 00
211030 2458N 08135W 6965 03109 9979 +105 +083 070056 057 042 005 00
211100 2456N 08137W 6965 03106 9974 +107 +085 067056 057 041 004 00

[JarrodB]

Storm surge already getting bad in Key West. It might be completely underwater by the peak of the storm. Quite a shocking video.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY1aBjhAKjj/?taken-at=213444877

There are few spots in Key West that are 20'+ above sea level.Hemmingway's house even has a basement.

Already serious flooding now, it will get worse.

PS, that is not Key West.

[Maineman]

Dunno, maybe not the right place here, but I don't know where to write it to - please move to the appropriate place. We turned on 1-min-sat imagery for #Irma. Click to zoom in, (-) to zoom out, into edges for pan.

Choose channels from menu:

https://weather.us/satellite/815-w-213-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play

[stormreader]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

So very serious now, pressure will drop like a rock. 27.55 is already a very, very serious hurricane. In the Florida Straits and off the SW coast of Fl tomorrow, I wouldn't want to guess what the pressure might go down to. But its going to be frightfully low.

[KBBOCA]

That's about as much of Florida as can possibly fit in the NHC cone at this point (when the cone is narrower due to less forecast error so close to landfall). WOW.

Key West in far SW to Jax in far NE all in the cone < 24 hours from landfall.

And even though SE FL is techincally out of the cone (not likely to see storm center) - look at the size of Irma. Very much NOT out of danger.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906626776620822528

[FLpanhandle91]

She's got a long time over very favorable waters still.

[PTPatrick]

There's a great map I found that shows what would flood in key west under different surge height. And it really is all but a few blocks in the middle. Even the shelter at the high school is nothing but last resort. It would flood deeply at predicted surge. It's built for cat 5 wind. I imagine they will have people in second floors?

http://www.cityofkeywest-fl.gov/egov/do ... 922484.htm

[Bamagirl2408]

Hello. Im just a mom from Alabama with less qualifications than anyone one this board scrolling while watching football. There is no doubt its WNW or a hair north of WNW. To my bifocal wearing eyes based on 295 heading it will go as wide left as an alabama football kicker to Key West in current heading if it doesnt go NW or NNW pretty snappy. No doubt they get the worst quadrant but at this stage it looks like it clips it with a ruler to radar. Just saying..