SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression ex.Lola (TC 25S)

[Chacor]

[wyq614]

JTWC has picked up the system. POOR

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
71.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 71.4E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
171521Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 170142Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
RISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

This is not going anywhere.

[HURAKAN]

A little better.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
71.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AN 181331Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION. AN 181245Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMED A BROAD LLCC
WITH 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.

[HURAKAN]

19/1500 UTC 13.7S 67.6E T1.0/1.0 94S -- South Indian Ocean

The first Dvorak estimate in almost 5 days.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 191434Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
191333Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTENED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

20/0830 UTC 14.7S 65.0E T1.5/1.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean

[gigabyte89]

Une nouvelle perturbation tropicale s'est formée durant les dernières 48h. D'après la dernière passe Quikscat et les images microondes disponibles (F13 à 6h17 locales) elle était positionnée ce matin autour du point 14°S et 64°1E, soit à environ 1200 kms à l'ENE de notre île. La convection dense se trouve pour le moment au S du centre de basses couches, avec une circulation dépressionnaire déjà bien organisée mais très dissymétrique (vents les plus forts dans le demi-cercle S).

Cette perturbation se déplaçait en direction de l'OSO.

L'environnement apparaît assez favorable pour le moment, avec l'axe de la dorsale d'altitude entre 15 et 17S (94S au N de cet axe subit pour le moment un cisaillement de SE, mais celui-ci devrait faiblir avec la trajectoire prévue vers l'OSO qui va amener progressivement 94S sous l'axe de la dorsale d'altitude).

Pour les 5 à 6 prochains jours, les conditions devraient rester assez favorables en altitude, avec un cisaillement faible entre 15 et 20S, et la divergence devrait être bonne à partir de dimanche. Par contre l'alimentation en flux de mousson sera réduite. Une intensification lente est l'hypothèse la plus probable pour le moment.

Pour les prochaines 72h, la trajectoire OSO à O devrait se maintenir, ce qui rapprocherait 94S de la zone des Mascareignes (au NNE des îles soeurs).

A suivre de près, en particulier pour le début de semaine prochaine, même si aucune influence n'est à attendre au niveau de la Réunion pour les prochaines 60h.
---
from loic abadie

[wyq614]

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


ZONE PERTURBEE 14-20072008

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 MARS A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 14.5 SUD / 63.0 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1050 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.9S/61.4E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.6S/59.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.1S/58.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PA L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS TOUTES LES 6 HEURES. CE BULLETIN SERA RE-ACTUALISE AU PLUS TARD LE 21 A 16H30.


And, by the way, gigabyte, could you tell me where did you find the French bulletin that you just posted above?

[gigabyte89]

It's from Loic Abadie, a french amateur website ... only updated when a system concerns mascarene islands

Link:

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http://pagesperso-orange.fr/loic.abadie/menu.htm

Another Very Good website:

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http://firinga.free.fr/saison.htm

[gigabyte89]

LIVE IMAGES

Latest Satellite Image (Mauritius Meteorological Services)




Animation (on 24hrs)


>> Click here for a complete sets of satellite imagery, animation, Synoptic Chart etc... <<

[HURAKAN]

20/1430 UTC 15.6S 62.1E T1.5/1.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean

[gigabyte89]

Looks like it's scattered..

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 62.4E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 201224Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200205Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A
TIGHTENED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Still broad & poorly organized.

[HURAKAN]

Coming together.

[wyq614]

Gigabyte, Thank you very much although the second website may be blocked so I can't open it. By the way, I wonder when JTWC will issue a TCFA on this system.

[gigabyte89]

Gigabyte, Thank you very much although the second website may be blocked so I can't open it. By the way, I wonder when JTWC will issue a TCFA on this system.

You're welcome
For the second link, u could this (Same website but different domain):

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firinga.com

I badly want this system to instensify and come to Mauritius

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

30-35 knots...