Bush wedding severe?

[Ed Mahmoud]

88ºF (31ºC) near Crawford, TX, where sometime today Jenna Bush is getting married. I hope the dime sized hail last night provided some excitement at the Bush ranch, but imagine what stories former President George W Bush can tell his grand-children if baseball sized hail falls at his daughter's wedding. Possible, as the dryline hasn't passed yet, as the dewpoint is still 72ºF (22º).


Radar suggests the dryline is still about an hour or two from Crawford.


RUC forecast suggests cap when dryline passes will probably be too strong for thunderstorm development, and low level winds will be a tad weak, and cloud bases a bit too high for tornadoes even if a storm can develop, but very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong speed shear in the area of greatest instability means damaging downburst winds and large hail would be a possibility.




My unofficial estimate, only a 15% chance of a storm at the ranch, but a 90% chance of severe wind or hail if one can bust the cap.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornado Watch for Bush wedding!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 415 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF DALLAS
TEXAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 296...

DISCUSSION...CAP HAS WEAKENED WHERE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE OVER
CENTRAL TX LATE TODAY. REGION WILL BE SKIRTED BY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY
LINE INTO CENTRAL TX. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY STORM
WHICH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...EVANS


SEL7

WOUS64 KWNS 102113
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TORNADO WATCH 297 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-121-139-145-161-213-217-231-251-257-
281-289-293-309-331-349-379-395-397-439-467-110200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0297.080510T2115Z-080511T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON ELLIS FALLS
FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO
RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT


ATTN...WFO...FWD...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Further South than I expected, and no warning, but a cell has popped just West of Austin in Travis County.



Maybe this means the cap will break in McLennan county...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not sure when the reception ends, and where Mr and Mrs. Hager will be honeymooning, but if they are still in Crawford, they still have a chance, however slim

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...

VALID 110016Z - 110215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 297 CONTINUES.

ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WW 297
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER TRAVIS COUNTY WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF WW 297...BUT LIMITED SVR THREAT AREA OUTSIDE OF WW
297 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH.

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDED OVER WW 297...WITH A MODIFIED 00Z FWD
SOUNDING INDICATING OVER 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
JUST EAST OF THE DFW METRO AREA HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN IT/S
INTENSITY. BUT THIS TSTM STILL MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT HR
BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DEVELOPS AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER
CINH AND MOVES INTO WW 295 ACROSS NERN TX. FURTHER
SOUTH...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM THE DFW METRO AREA SWD ALONG I-35. ONE LONE SUPERCELL
OUTSIDE OF WW 297 WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN IT/S
ISOLATED NATURE ANOTHER WW SOUTH OF WW 297 IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
HOWEVER...THIS TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS. GRADUALLY INCREASING CINH SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT BEYOND
02Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL WW EXTENSION MAYBE NEEDED FOR 1-2 HRS FOR
PORTIONS OF WW 297.

..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30099848 33209723 33459607 32889554 31919571 30949635
30179702 29869763

[Bunkertor]

When i marry i want a tornado watch, too

btw.: The Bushes build up a stone cross extra for the wedding. Where do that guys take the loads of money from ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

He owned an oil company once, and the Bush family (back through his father and grandfather) have lots of money. They have a Kennedy-esque (Hyannis Port) beach estate a couple hundred miles further North than the Kennedy's, in Kennebunkport Maine. Prescott Bush, father of the first President Bush was a banker and a US Senator from Connecticut. Bush I set out for West Texas after the war and started as an oil field supplies salesman, living in Midland, TX when the current President Bush was born.


Like President Clinton before him, I'm sure President Bush will make a small fortune giving speeches and writing his memoirs after he steps down in January.


But having a ready supply of money helps one get started in American politics. Besides the Bush political dynasty, there are the Kennedy's, and there have been both Democrat and Republican politicians who have been prominent in politics from the Rockefeller (Standard Oil, the forerunner of Exxon-Mobil and Chevron) family fortune. John Kerry was born fairly wealthy, then married the widow of a US Senator who was heir to the Heinz (ketchup) fortune. Eliot Spitzer, of recent sex scandal fame, has a father worth over half a billion US dollars who has funded his various political campaigns.

All three current presidential candidates have the distinction of not being from very wealthy families, although all three are comfortable now. But being born rich seems to help.

No weather in Crawford, but 45th and Guadalupe, just North of the UT campus, had hail larger than golfballs, and Jenna was a UT student, where she partied hardy when she was a bit younger.



I went to the University of Texas myself, and enjoyed many a cold Shiner in Eastwoods Park across 26th from the Law School, when the student chapter Society of Petroleum Engineers would organize a BEvERage Bust every second or third week.

[Bunkertor]

But he mismanaged that oil company such as the Rangers, isn´t it ?

I don´t know if i should agree Bush will make a fortune in giving speeches but he´s well off anyway. I think he´s glad to be out of office, soon, as most US-citizens seem to be. I can imagine he´ll retire down there in Crawford. This is what he really likes.