AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 65.1E, APPROX-IMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICT A REGION OF CONVERGENT SOUTH-
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED AND WEAK CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MOD-
ERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT. MAX-
IMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO A LACK OF A WELL CON-
SOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
