I was perusing some sites and came across these maps. Check out your area based on the category of hurricane
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/ba ... turn.shtml
Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline
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gatorcane
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Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Re:
KWT wrote:Wow what a great resource that is gatorcane thanks I'm going to have to save this post.
Return rate for a cat-1 in S.Florida just 4-5 years...whilst a return rate of once in 68 years for a major in the New York area which is really food for thought...
Some interesting extremes:
Return period for NY for a CAT 5 hurricane is 430 years for long island.
Return period for Miami for a CAT 5 hurricane is 33 years.
Map snippets from site below:
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Re: Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline
Very interesting...last hurricane in South Fla was Wilma in 2005....if the return period stats hold, we aren't too far off from the next!
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gatorcane
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Re: Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline
jinftl wrote:Very interesting...last hurricane in South Fla was Wilma in 2005....if the return period stats hold, we aren't too far off from the next!
Wilma was a 2 when it came across SE Florida. Based on return period for a CAT 2, West Palm Beach is 10 and Miami is 6. If we take a rough mean of these numbers to get a ballpark figure we have 8. So I would say return period analysis shows that SE Florida should see its next CAT 2 by no sooner than 2005 + 8 or 2013.
Note: return period analysis is based on historical data and does not rule out the possibility that any scenario can happen at anytime.
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Of course the problem with the average is that its going to include the queiter periods as well as the more active ones and whilst a slower season doesn't always means less landfalls obviously if you have more hurricanes present there is going to be a heightened chance that one of them will hit sooner or later.
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