Long-Wave Pattern Change

[gatorcane]

The long-wave pattern for the past couple of weeks has featured ridging across the GOM and Eastern CONUS keeping all tropical waves and moisture suppressed way south over Central America.

But NWS Miami is already noting a long-wave pattern change starting this weekend that could bring systems from the Western Caribbean north. Please note there is nothing to be concerned about at the moment, but with the long-wave pattern change, we need to pay close attention to anything that may get going in the Western Caribbean over the next couple of weeks.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD SOMEWHAT DRIER IS IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE
PENINSULA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT IT DOESNT LAST LONG AS WINDS
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING MOISTURE BACK.
ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND, THE GFS DIGS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH RESULTS IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION PATTERNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN COULD BE INTERESTING, BUT NEED TO SEE IF THE
MODELS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH IT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF
HINTS AT A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT WITH THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. AT ANY
RATE, IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE
CHANGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, PUSHING A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA

[KWT]

As it happens that pattern change will probably be a good one because as long as nothing really gets going all that moisture down in the Caribbean will help out with the rainfall totals in Florida. Indeed even a tropical system may be a good thing providing it doesn't get too strong...

[boca]

If this materializes we could get the rain finally that we've been waiting for, not just hit and miss showers.

[KWT]

Yep indeed boca all the convection that is presently stuck down in the Sw Caribbean can finally find an escape route to the NE as the weakness opens up.

[Eyewall]

This is what I think the pattern will be like starting in July and through September. Which puts the gulf coast under the gun.

[Stormcenter]

This is what I think the pattern will be like starting in July and through September. Which puts the gulf coast under the gun.

The entire Gulf coast and Eastern seaboard is always under the gun in any season.

[HouTXmetro]

The entire Gulf Coast is in need of rain.

[Eyewall]

Not so fast my friend the east coast has not been under the gun in years. I do remember the late 90s and early 2000s. Although it is true that starting out the gulf coast and east coast are under the gun.