Convection in the Northern Gulf Of Mexico/Tail End of Front

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It has persisted for about 12-15 hours, so we will
see what happens. Shear is very high, but the tail
end of fronts can develop in June.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

[Meso]

Yeah a couple models have it developing when it passes Florida,created a thread on the models this morning titled "Possible Sub-tropical storm off east coast" or something..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh Sorry...I had not even looked at the models, I just saw the
convection persisting and felt a little curious as to what might
become of it...
I thought the east coast subtropical possibility came from a wave near
Puerto Rico.

[Steve]

Brought a bunch of rain to S/SE LA including some Flash Flood warnings in NOLA and Jefferson Parish. What I want to see is what sets up in 3-4 days. Does a high settle in the mid and lower mississippi valley, and how does that high later merge into the western Atlantic high and at what latitude. 2005 featured highs going off shore centered +/- NC. It also had a mean trough position further west than 90 (brought 4 canes to S LA). Then what happens when the pattern repeats a couple more times. If you follow that stuff over a few weeks, you can often get a pretty good clue what is going to happen during late August and early September.

Steve

[boca]

Steve are you saying that the atmosphere is behaving the same as in 2005?

[Sanibel]

Not seeing intense convection in this. But who knows.

[Steve]

>>Steve are you saying that the atmosphere is behaving the same as in 2005?

Probably not. Highs settled in, migrated east and then southeast off the NC coast reinforcing the ridge in the western atlantic. Of course the water was ridiculsously above normal in almost the entire Atlantic Basin (tropical regions), so we also have to see how that sets up as we move into summer. There are a lot of factors, but following how the pattern progresses in the horse latitudes can show you potential alley ways (if you will) where tropical systems coming in from the east and southeast might be able to find. It's just something else to watch (real weather) during the downtimes. You also want to watch to SOI, NAO, water temperature profiles and reversals and rainfall patterns (for instance, the severe drought we had up in Northern Alabama and southern Tennessee has migrated some toward South Carolina).

Steve

[boca]

Where still starving for rainfall here in S FL. Lake O is really low.We need a couple of tropical non hurricane like systems.

[HURAKAN]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Jun 15, 2008

9.28 ft.

About 3 ft. below its historical average for this time of year.


Continues to go down. It was 9.33 last week.

[KWT]

Thats really quite low compared to the average I think we are going to really need some sort of tropical systemto help bump those figures up somewhat, just hopefully that doesn't mean a hurricane!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
Some convection off the west coast of Florida
on the radar, but the convection isn't spinning, so
right now it is just part of the front.

I am posting this observation in the tropics form because
of the potential of June storms to form from the end of
fronts in the Gulf of Mexico. The chance of that happening
here is maybe 5-10%, so it will just need to be watched a little
bit, but it is nothing significant so far.

[JonathanBelles]

Most of the rain, at least here, isnt making the ground.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yea not too much rain here, it is light rain, but I can say that
the skies look tropical-ish. If this area of rain sticks around for
several days off the west coast perhaps something might
try to form, if shear is low. What do you all think
of a possible slow tropical development from this "mess"?
It is mostly associated with the cold front right now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The convection is very small in area and very close to moving
onshore over Tampa Bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html
Unless convection redevelops over the Gulf, we can write this one off.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Florida will also see wet weather on Monday as a weak area of low pressure develops just offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. The low will have very little chance to increase in strength before moving over the Florida Peninsula later in the week.

Wunderground on the link I put above. Very tropical like torrential rain from 300-320 pm.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This area is now dead. Convection is inland.
But on the visible you can see a tropical wave
moving through Cuba just south of the Florida Straits.
This may interact with the trough over Florida
over the next 2-3 days. Nothing is imminent, but
keep an eye out for a burst of convection as these
two features interact.

[Category 5]

I am posting this observation in the tropics form because
of the potential of June storms to form from the end of
fronts in the Gulf of Mexico. The chance of that happening
here is maybe 5-10%, so it will just need to be watched a little
bit, but it is nothing significant so far.

Yes but alot of those times it's stalled fronts.