http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm
The MLC is more strong than the LLC as they point out but they see great chances to be a TD very soon as favorable conditions will prevail.Recon will go again tommorow.
5:30 TWO from TPC:Convection has increased near MLC
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cycloneye
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5:30 TWO from TPC:Convection has increased near MLC
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ameriwx2003
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Stormsfury
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NHC's wording is tricky here ...
REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE DATA...AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED NEAR A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
While thunderstorm activity has increased near a mid-level circulation located 300 miles NE of the weak-low level swirl.
The kicker ... HOWEVER, upper-level conditions have become more favorable and tropical depression could still form during the next day or so.
I'm not so sure they've given up on the LLS just yet.
SF
REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE DATA...AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED NEAR A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
While thunderstorm activity has increased near a mid-level circulation located 300 miles NE of the weak-low level swirl.
The kicker ... HOWEVER, upper-level conditions have become more favorable and tropical depression could still form during the next day or so.
I'm not so sure they've given up on the LLS just yet.
SF
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cycloneye
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Yes ameriwx2003 it will be very interesting to see that and Stormsfury yes that is interesting wording from them so let's see what happens during the night with it.IMO the system may have more chance to develop once in the GOM.
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wxman57
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NHC Discussion
Stormsfury wrote:NHC's wording is tricky here ...
REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE DATA...AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED NEAR A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
While thunderstorm activity has increased near a mid-level circulation located 300 miles NE of the weak-low level swirl.
The kicker ... HOWEVER, upper-level conditions have become more favorable and tropical depression could still form during the next day or so.
I'm not so sure they've given up on the LLS just yet.
SF
I believe that when they said that upper-level conditions have become more favorable for development, they certainly weren't talking about near that weak swirl of low clouds - they were talking about the area of convection to the northeast where the upper high has built. Wind shear appears to be increasing down south by the swirl. Have to read even further between the lines.
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