Amateur Forecasts and synopses

[JonathanBelles]

I've been given permission to create a thread for myself to post forecasts, but I thought I would open it up to everyone to post their thoughts and forecasts for any current and future systems.

I will start...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 080208 Synopsis

The tropics become active once again. Invests 99L and 90L are in the eastern Atlantic. Invest 91L also in the Gulf of Mexico.



Eastern Atlantic….Invest 99L. This is the most developed of the three invests and there is a possibility for this to become a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow. A lower level center is slowly taking shape. Shear is low at this point, but will increase in its future and could hinder development. SST’s and OHC’s increase in this invests future which could help it to tropical depression, and possible tropical storm status. Ships does take this to tropical storm status. Most of the models take this system for a recurve well east of Bermuda.

Far Eastern Atlantic….Invest 90L. This system may be far enough south that it can move into the Caribbean and possibly impact North America in the very long. Slow development is likely with this system. Dry SAL is impacting this system. As soon as 90L can outrun the SAL development will be more likely. This may also become a tropical depression over the next few days. SST’s and OHC will be pretty constant for some time. The Caribbean islands will need to watch this system in the next week for any development.

Northern Gulf of Mexico….Invest 91L. This invest was declared as I began typing this synopsis which is also the reason for the white block instead of the normal transparent text. This system has been lingering for a week or so. It is expected to remain stationary as it develops. Shear is light and SST’s are high, so development is very possible. Because of the closeness to land, everyone on the gulf coast needs to watch this system. Recon has a possible scheduled flight for tomorrow if needed. NAM and GFS both show this system developing a closed low and moving west towards the central or northern coast of Texas. CMC shows a low moving into the LA/TX border or just to the west. Nogaps and Ukmet show little to nothing. Rain will be widespread from northern Florida to LA and later Texas. This has the possibility of surprising everyone with a close to land development, although it should be slow to occur.

Fact789-Jonathan

**any and all comments, positive or negative, will be appreciated**

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 080408 Edouard ed.

Tropical Storm Edouard continues to organize over the Gulf of Mexico.



Northern Gulf of Mexico….Tropical Storm Edouard. Recon is currently investigating Edouard. Edouard seems to be wrapping around its center of circulation both on radar and on satellite.

Edouard has winds of about 45 to 50mph in a very small area to the northeastern side. As soon as the western side of the system, further intensification can occur. I think that a minimal hurricane is not out of the picture. I see landfall at 70mph. Dry air and slight shear may be a slight hindrance for Edouard.

Edouard is moving WNW and that should continue to landfall. Landfall should occur between Galveston and Port Arthur, TX. Landfall should be around 7-8am on Tuesday.

There is a Hurricane Watch out for western LA at Intercoastal City to Port O Connor, TX including Port Arthur, Galveston, Houston, and Matagorda, TX and Cameron, LA. Those in this area should be expecting tropical storm force winds and scattered hurricane force gusts in the next day or two. There may also be a very, very small area of sustained hurricane force winds.

A Tropical Storm Warning extends east to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Those here are already getting the outer rain bands of Edouard. Effects will be felt as far away as Mobile, AL and Pensacola, Fl. It will be a very wet day in southern LA today, and Southern Texas tomorrow. Tropical Storm force winds can be expected in southwestern LA and in Texas as far west as Freeport.

Storm Surge will be 1-3’ in most areas of the hurricane watch. Surge can be 3-5’ near Galveston. Both brackets will be on the low side in the unprotected bays.

Up to 3” of rain will fall in coastal LA and much of southeastern Texas. Up to 6” will fall near the landfall area and in training spots with up to 10” in very isolated areas.

Tornadoes may also be a threat on the eastern side of Edouard as he makes landfall.

If you are anywhere from Freeport to Intercoastal City, you should be preparing at least for a maximal tropical storm with winds of 70mph, heavy rains, low surge, and isolated tornadoes early Tuesday morning.

Fact789-Jonathan
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As with past tropical systems I am now opening up for everyone the option for me to do a personal forecast for you. Just send me a PM or leave a request here and I will do personal forecasts until Edouard makes landfall.
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Any and all questions and comments, positive or negative, can also be left here concerning this forecast.

[RL3AO]

A little more convection on the left side, it would look like an annular hurricane.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 080508a Edouard Ed.

Tropical Storm Edouard continues to organize and intensify.



Northern Gulf of Mexico….Tropical Storm Edouard. Recon is once again on its way to Edouard. Edouard is blowing up more convection to the north of its center, and is wrapping around on radar. He seems to be still very close to the NHC track.

Edouard has winds of 60mph with higher gusts. The tropical storm force wind radius has expanded quite a bit since my last forecast and may be nearing the Louisiana coast. A minimal hurricane is still not out of the picture. I am saying landfall wind speed will be around 70mph.

Edouard is moving WNW with some wobbles and should continue to move WNW toward a landfall between High Island and Sabine Pass. Landfall should be 1pm tomorrow (+/- one hour).

There is a Hurricane Watch out for western LA at Intracoastal City to Port O Connor, TX including Port Arthur, Galveston, Houston, and Matagorda, TX and Cameron, LA. I would expect tropical storm force winds in this area with possible hurricane force gusts. There may also be sustained hurricane force winds near the landfall area.

A Tropical Storm Warning expands from Grand Isle, LA to Port O Connor, TX. Those in western LA are already experiencing rain, and that will be pushing west into Lake Charles and Beaumont in the next few hours and further throughout the night. Tropical Storm force winds should be expected west of Intracoastal City in the next few hours, which should expand westward overnight.

Storm Surge of 1’ should be expected in the entire Tropical Storm Warning area. Surge of up to 4’ near the landfall point and near Galveston can be expected. All surge will occur on the eastern side of the landfall point.

3-5” of rain can be expected in Louisiana over night. 4-6” can be expected in southeastern Texas with isolated amounts of 7-8” near the landfall track.

Isolated tornadoes should be expected east of Houston, possibly all the way to Intracoastal City. A tornado watch is to be expected over SE Texas and SW La in the overnight hours.

Conditions will be deteriorating to the north and east of Edouard from now until dissipation.

All in all, Tropical Storm Edouard is moving WNW toward the upper Texas coastline for a landfall between High Island and Sabine Pass, TX with winds just under hurricane strength. Although it may be just under hurricane strength, the difference between 70 and 75mph will be very small. Those in Southeastern Texas and Southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for heavy rain, slight surge, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Fact789-Jonathan
********************************************************************
As with past tropical systems I am now opening up for everyone the option for me to do a personal forecast for you. Just send me a PM or leave a request here and I will do personal forecasts until Edouard makes landfall.
********************************************************************
Any and all questions and comments, positive or negative, can also be left here concerning this forecast.