Some stats - averages based on the years since 1995

[Hurricanehink]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So, it's September 5th. We're one week away from the peak of the season, and we're already at 10 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 majors (10/5/3). This has been a crazy season, so what can we expect? I just did some calculations, based on the seasons since 1995, for tropical activity after September 5th. I'm pretty sure I have these base numbers right, but I'll correct if proven wrong.

1995 7/5/3
1996: 5/3/2
1997: 3/1/1
1998: 9/7/2
1999: 7/5/3
2000: 10/6/2
2001: 10/8/3
2002: 6/4/2
2003: 8/3/2
2004: 6/3/2
2005: 14/8/3
2006: 3/3/2
2007: 9/3/0

That leads to an average of 7.4 storms. However, that includes 1997 and 2006, which could be considered outliers due to being El Nino years, as well as 2005, which is an outlier due to being the most active season ever. Removing them yields an average of 7.7, so having 7 to 8 more storms is certainly possible. This would bring the season to Sally, and would end up as the fifth most active season on record (tied with 1969).

The average for hurricanes is 4.5. The one that sticks out the most is 1997, so when removed yields an average of 4.8. 2005 is still included, as 2001 also had the same number of hurricanes after this date, and 2000 came close.

The average for major hurricanes is 2.1, and surprisingly the only season without a major was last year.

So, the average season, with outliers removed, is 8/5/2, which would bring the season total to 18/10/5. The minimum of the data set would produce a season of 13/6/3, and the maximum of the set would produce a season of 24/13/6.

Again, these are based solely on averages for the last 13 years. The season could stop tomorrow (although, based on a quick database search, the earliest season end date was September 14th), and as we all know in the tropics, anything can happen. So we must be prepared for whatever mother nature throws at us. Good luck to everyone in the way of these storms.

[Ptarmigan]

1997 had four storms around this time of the year. Yes, 2008 has been ahead of many other seasons, even the active season of 2004!

[Hurricanehink]

1997 had four storms around this time of the year. Yes, 2008 has been ahead of many other seasons, even the active season of 2004!

Wait, I think you misunderstood. Those numbers are for tropical activity after September 5th.

[Old-TimeCane]

2007: 9/3/0

Dean and Felix were both Category 5's before the 5th of September last year:

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MAKES LANDFALL IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...

Edit:
Oops...nevermind. I misread it just like the other person. You're talking about after that date, not before.

[Ptarmigan]

1997 had four storms around this time of the year. Yes, 2008 has been ahead of many other seasons, even the active season of 2004!

Wait, I think you misunderstood. Those numbers are for tropical activity after September 5th.

I misread it.