FL KEYS

[cpdaman]

i posted a couple times today in the IKE thread about my greatest fear regarding this storm as of today (saturday)

at the risk of getting that thread off topic, i decided to create this one where i state my concerns about the fla keys in the present scenario with IKE

The people down there are very laid back ( i personally know many in Key west) I believe with the shift south at 11 am today, many key west residents (not tourists) will elect to stay. The thing is the storm is moving pretty quickly and should the models shift back right ( 11 am sunday or worst case 11pm sunday) there may not be as much time left to get out, and the traffic jams could be severe , should many realize too late that they need to get out.

I just hope the people in the keys that are furtherst south (esp. marathon to key west) decide to leave today or sunday) the effect of a CAT 3/4 surge on the island could lead to THOUSANDS of drownings, and deaths and this is my fear. the land is very low and they could literally be engulfed by the fla straits.

i give this about a 30% chance of occuring right now (in key west-marathon corridor), so i don't expect it but it is certainly a signficant threat IMO.

[cpdaman]

FLA keys things are looking more likely you will miss the brunt of this storm

but DO NOT let down your guard completely on this. tracks can change, cone's do shift, climo heavily favors you being effected in a large way by this storm. doesn't mean it will happen , but it means you should be on the look out for any slow downs, track shifts, or redirection by cuba land interaction, this is not a storm to mess with.