No TD/Erika at 11pm

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ALhurricane
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No TD/Erika at 11pm

#1 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:08 pm

There will be no new news as of 11pm. Recon has not been able to close off the system. They will be out there until 06z, so it's possible a special advisory may be issued if they can close it off. No dice so far.
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wxman57
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06Z

#2 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:17 pm

How do you think it would go over with the public if the NHC issued the first advisory on a storm at 2-3am when it will be hitting Miami in about 6 hours? :wink:

Odds are, if the don't upgrade it now, it won't be upgraded until late Thursday or Friday. It wouldn't do the public any good to wait until the squalls are hitting land in the morning to issue the first advisory. Their problem is that it just doesn't have a closed LLC. It's no different from any other wave at this point - sustained winds 25-35 kts with gusts 50 kts in squalls. These things hit the islands of the eastern Caribbean all the time.
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#3 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:22 pm

Hehe...I understand what you are saying. If they start playing that game then they would really open up a Pandora's Box. Political influence vs. science once again! For their sake, I hope recon doesn't find that west wind. :wink:
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#4 Postby Colin » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:22 pm

It doesn't have much time to organize into a TD or TS before making landfall in Florida...
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Re: 06Z

#5 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Aug 13, 2003 9:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:How do you think it would go over with the public if the NHC issued the first advisory on a storm at 2-3am when it will be hitting Miami in about 6 hours? :wink:

Odds are, if the don't upgrade it now, it won't be upgraded until late Thursday or Friday. It wouldn't do the public any good to wait until the squalls are hitting land in the morning to issue the first advisory. Their problem is that it just doesn't have a closed LLC. It's no different from any other wave at this point - sustained winds 25-35 kts with gusts 50 kts in squalls. These things hit the islands of the eastern Caribbean all the time.



I'd agree. TPC certainly is aware of the problems caused by people going to bed...nothing....waking up Erika knocking at the door.

But, it is what it is, or in this case, isn't. They won't go to a TD or TS w/o it being closed off. Are people in S FL really going to freak out it this crosses the straight with 30 or 35 kt winds? I don't think that's the case either.

Scott
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#6 Postby jabber » Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:05 pm

Pretty Quite now in West Palm Beach... waiting. I see A nice full moon and a bright Mars. Gonna get nasty in about an hour.
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sunrise

#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:14 pm

jabber wrote:Pretty Quite now in West Palm Beach... waiting. I see A nice full moon and a bright Mars. Gonna get nasty in about an hour.


Probably more like sunrise - get some sleep.
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