WPAC 22W: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 137.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 184 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR A REAGION OF TIGHT TROUGHING ALSO EVIDENT IN A 071308Z AMSUB
PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 070919Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE REGION OF TROUGHING WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WIND SOUTH OF
THE SUSPECTED CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 136E WNW 20 KT.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 131.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IM-
AGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS ON THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED ON
LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE
IN LAND INTERACTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.

[Chacor]

Impressive blowup.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 130130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 135 NM RADIUS OF 17.7N 108.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1N
107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95NM
NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122133Z
AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN FLANK
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER SUPPORT A DEFINED, DEEPENING LOW WITH
SLP VALUES AS LOW AS 1006 MB WITH 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4
MB. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME COOLER, DRIER AIR NORTH OF HAINAN ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH HAS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND HELPED
SPIN UP THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140130Z.//

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 108E WNW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

06z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 108E NW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 18.8N 108.0E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121Z OCT 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 19.1N 108.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NUMEROUS
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE TO NO STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. IN FACT, CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY
FLANKED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS SINCE DISSOLVED
LEAVING ONLY A SMALL CDO FEATURE OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MORE RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO
WARM AND DISBAND FOLLOWING A DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS MIGRATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM SHEARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE AND HAVE SERVED TO FUEL DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LLCC. INITIAL SYSTEM INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES SUGGESTING A 25
KNOT SYSTEM; YET NEARBY 140000Z SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM
DONGFANG, HAINAN (1007 MB), AND A PARTIAL 132247Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE,
INDICATE A SYSTEM BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE LOWER INTENSITY SOURCES DUE TO THE LACK OF STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150130Z.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.8N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.9N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 107.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN
HAINAN ISLAND, A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM THE GULF OF TONKIN,
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TD 22W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NOW
EXCEEDING THE 25 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TD 22W WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 24. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL OFFSET THE IMPACT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER, ALLOWING TD 22W TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
140130Z OCT 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 140130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z,
150300Z AND 150900Z.//

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 19.0N 107.8E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 107.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 107.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.6N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.8N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.9N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 106.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z
AND 152100Z.

[HURAKAN]

I really don't know what JMA is waiting for to name this system.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 106.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 106.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.4N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.5N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 106.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
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