ATL OMAR: Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 112025
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2025 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982008) 20081011 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081011 1800 081012 0600 081012 1800 081013 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 64.9W 13.4N 66.8W 14.9N 68.5W 16.0N 69.8W
BAMD 12.5N 64.9W 13.5N 65.7W 14.7N 66.7W 15.7N 67.5W
BAMM 12.5N 64.9W 13.2N 66.4W 14.4N 68.1W 15.2N 69.5W
LBAR 12.5N 64.9W 13.8N 66.0W 15.3N 67.2W 16.5N 68.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081013 1800 081014 1800 081015 1800 081016 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 70.9W 17.1N 72.1W 16.7N 73.0W 17.4N 74.8W
BAMD 16.2N 68.0W 17.0N 67.0W 20.3N 62.8W 23.6N 58.6W
BAMM 15.9N 70.6W 16.0N 71.6W 15.5N 71.7W 16.4N 72.7W
LBAR 16.9N 68.7W 17.7N 68.4W 20.4N 65.6W 24.9N 61.5W
SHIP 38KTS 52KTS 60KTS 59KTS
DSHP 38KTS 52KTS 60KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 64.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

Those look unresolved. Suggest they will be different in 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

Moving Northwest at 8 kts. I dont like a bit what the BAMD does but the models change constantly.

WHXX01 KWBC 120104
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0104 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982008) 20081012 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081012 0000 081012 1200 081013 0000 081013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 65.0W 14.4N 66.9W 15.4N 68.4W 16.4N 69.8W
BAMD 13.3N 65.0W 14.5N 65.9W 15.6N 66.8W 16.3N 67.6W
BAMM 13.3N 65.0W 14.2N 66.6W 15.1N 68.0W 15.7N 69.3W
LBAR 13.3N 65.0W 14.8N 66.1W 16.2N 67.1W 17.1N 67.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081014 0000 081015 0000 081016 0000 081017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 70.7W 17.4N 71.9W 17.4N 72.3W 18.5N 73.8W
BAMD 16.8N 67.9W 18.5N 65.6W 23.7N 60.7W 27.9N 55.3W
BAMM 16.1N 70.1W 16.0N 70.1W 17.7N 66.6W 20.8N 64.4W
LBAR 17.5N 67.8W 19.0N 66.5W 23.6N 61.9W 29.4N 55.6W
SHIP 42KTS 56KTS 65KTS 59KTS
DSHP 42KTS 56KTS 65KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 64.1W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 62.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[ROCK]

CMC deepens it quickly and into PR as a healthy hurricane. NOGAPS seems to have the right idea in the near term with a NW to WNW track. Models should look better by tomorrow if consolidation keeps up....

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121304
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1304 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982008) 20081012 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081012 1200 081013 0000 081013 1200 081014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 67.0W 14.9N 68.8W 15.4N 70.4W 15.7N 71.5W
BAMD 14.0N 67.0W 15.0N 68.0W 15.6N 68.8W 15.9N 69.3W
BAMM 14.0N 67.0W 14.7N 68.6W 15.2N 69.9W 15.4N 70.8W
LBAR 14.0N 67.0W 15.2N 68.1W 16.1N 69.0W 16.5N 69.7W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081014 1200 081015 1200 081016 1200 081017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 72.5W 15.6N 72.9W 15.6N 72.3W 16.9N 72.9W
BAMD 16.0N 69.4W 17.4N 66.7W 21.1N 63.9W 24.4N 63.5W
BAMM 15.3N 71.5W 14.9N 71.3W 16.3N 69.4W 18.7N 69.4W
LBAR 16.8N 70.0W 18.4N 69.2W 22.4N 67.3W 26.4N 64.4W
SHIP 38KTS 52KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 38KTS 52KTS 63KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 65.6W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm looking at a chance for the first big New York/New England Nor'Easter of the Fall, and I noticed both 0Z Canadian and GFS in a week have a deep trough, taking on a negative tilt. Canadian has that trough actually steering 98L towards a near miss on Canada...





Not likely, but snow in the interior Northeast/SE Ontario or Quebec within a day or two of a near miss/hit by a tropical/post tropical cyclone into the Maritimes would be something, wouldn't it?

[jinftl]

What is interesting is that the models are initializing the center this morning further west than 12 hours ago...indicative of a more wnw motion.

Saturday evening, models were initialized at 13.3N, 65.0W. This morning they are initialized at 14.0N, 67.0W. This longitude is west of most of Puerto Rico even.

[captain east]

Half the models take this on a more NW track and half take this more out to see, we'll just have to wait and see with this one...

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF makes it a hurricane after it moves over Puerto Rico.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982008) 20081012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081012 1800 081013 0600 081013 1800 081014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 67.7W 15.9N 69.5W 16.5N 70.9W 16.7N 72.1W
BAMD 15.1N 67.7W 15.9N 68.7W 16.4N 69.4W 16.5N 69.7W
BAMM 15.1N 67.7W 15.8N 69.3W 16.2N 70.4W 16.2N 71.3W
LBAR 15.1N 67.7W 16.2N 68.7W 17.0N 69.6W 17.4N 70.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081014 1800 081015 1800 081016 1800 081017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 73.0W 16.5N 73.3W 17.2N 73.6W 18.9N 74.5W
BAMD 16.4N 69.5W 18.4N 65.5W 22.8N 58.0W 28.3N 48.1W
BAMM 16.1N 71.8W 15.6N 70.3W 16.9N 69.5W 18.8N 70.1W
LBAR 17.8N 70.0W 20.2N 67.8W 24.7N 63.8W 28.9N 57.9W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 57KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 57KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 67.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 64.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[fci]

A couple of days ago, Jeff Masters in his blog; talked about an extratropical storm north of PUerto Rico early this week.

Is 98L it?

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L



INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 12



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 14.8 67.9 315./ 9.9

6 15.4 68.4 322./ 7.5

12 15.8 68.6 335./ 4.9

18 15.9 69.0 287./ 4.3

24 16.6 69.1 349./ 6.3

30 17.0 69.3 331./ 4.3

36 17.3 68.9 52./ 5.1

42 17.7 68.9 9./ 4.0

48 18.1 68.4 51./ 6.2

54 18.4 68.0 56./ 4.8

60 18.8 67.0 62./10.2

66 19.5 65.8 60./13.3

72 20.5 64.3 58./17.1

78 21.5 63.0 55./15.8

84 22.5 61.6 53./15.8

90 23.6 60.4 47./15.8

96 24.8 59.0 48./17.8

102 25.6 58.3 44./10.2

108 26.2 57.4 56./ 9.7

114 26.8 56.6 53./ 9.7

120 27.4 55.9 52./ 8.0

126 28.0 55.3 45./ 8.4

It has a cat 2 hurricane in the open Atlantic after it moves almost over Puerto Rico as a strong Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z HWRF also has a hurricane after it moves over Puerto Rico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[bvigal]

models continue to show that sharp turn to NE over PR

URL=http://imageshack.us][/URL]

[cycloneye]

One word from 06z HWRF=A monster.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

One word from 06z HWRF=A monster.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

DAMN not a sweet

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 131236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982008) 20081013 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081013 1200 081014 0000 081014 1200 081015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 69.6W 15.2N 70.8W 15.5N 71.9W 15.6N 72.3W
BAMD 14.9N 69.6W 15.1N 70.1W 15.2N 70.2W 15.2N 69.6W
BAMM 14.9N 69.6W 15.2N 70.5W 15.3N 71.2W 15.3N 71.5W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081015 1200 081016 1200 081017 1200 081018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 72.7W 15.1N 73.7W 16.0N 75.7W 17.0N 78.2W
BAMD 15.9N 67.6W 20.1N 61.5W 26.4N 51.4W 32.9N 42.9W
BAMM 15.2N 71.7W 15.3N 72.3W 16.4N 74.5W 17.5N 77.2W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 68.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

962
WHXX01 KWBC 131324
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1324 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (AL152008) 20081013 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081013 1200 081014 0000 081014 1200 081015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 69.6W 15.2N 70.8W 15.5N 71.9W 15.6N 72.3W
BAMD 14.9N 69.6W 15.1N 70.1W 15.2N 70.2W 15.2N 69.6W
BAMM 14.9N 69.6W 15.2N 70.5W 15.3N 71.2W 15.3N 71.5W
LBAR 14.9N 69.6W 15.3N 70.4W 15.7N 71.0W 16.3N 71.1W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081015 1200 081016 1200 081017 1200 081018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 72.7W 15.1N 73.7W 16.0N 75.7W 17.0N 78.2W
BAMD 15.9N 67.6W 20.1N 61.5W 26.4N 51.4W 32.9N 42.9W
BAMM 15.2N 71.7W 15.3N 72.3W 16.4N 74.5W 17.5N 77.2W
LBAR 17.5N 70.5W 21.3N 68.1W 24.6N 64.4W 27.6N 60.1W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 68.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL goes over my house!

WHXX04 KWBC 131726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 15L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.6 69.7 275./ 6.0
6 15.1 69.6 9./ 5.0
12 15.4 69.6 351./ 3.2
18 15.9 69.2 40./ 6.6
24 16.2 69.3 340./ 3.0
30 16.6 69.0 37./ 4.8
36 16.9 68.6 53./ 4.4
42 17.4 67.9 55./ 9.0
48 18.0 67.3 41./ 8.3
54 19.0 66.4 44./12.5
60 19.9 65.4 48./12.9
66 20.9 64.6 39./12.7
72 21.9 63.7 42./14.0
78 22.9 62.4 53./15.2
84 23.9 61.0 54./15.8
90 24.8 60.0 46./13.3
96 25.7 59.0 50./12.9
102 26.6 58.1 46./12.0
108 27.2 57.5 45./ 8.4
114 28.0 57.0 30./ 8.4
120 28.9 56.5 28./10.6
126 30.0 55.9 31./11.8

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has a major cane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12z GFDL tracks thru the Mona channel and north coast of PR as a hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Maybe a little glimpse of good news from GFDL for Puerto Rico,the VI and the Northern Leewards as its 18z run tracks thru the extreme Eastern Hispanola and Mona Channel.

WHXX04 KWBC 132326
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 15L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.5 70.0 265./ 4.1
6 14.6 70.3 290./ 2.8
12 14.3 70.7 239./ 4.3
18 14.2 70.7 196./ 1.8
24 14.2 70.7 24./ 1.0
30 14.2 70.6 124./ .3
36 14.5 70.2 53./ 4.8
42 15.1 69.8 39./ 7.4
48 15.6 69.4 42./ 5.9
54 16.3 68.6 44./10.5
60 17.6 68.5 8./12.7
66 18.6 68.4 1./10.3
72 19.7 68.5 358./10.8
78 20.6 68.6 353./ 9.5
84 21.7 68.8 348./10.8
90 22.7 69.0 352./ 9.9
96 23.7 69.0 358./10.4
102 24.8 68.6 19./11.3
108 26.0 68.1 25./13.0
114 27.5 67.1 33./17.3
120 29.4 65.5 41./23.4
126 31.5 63.2 46./29.1


18z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation