Monday, 20 October 2008
Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2008-09
A Tropical Cyclone Coastal Impact is more likely than not
Queenslanders are being urged to prepare early for the cyclone and flood season with monsoonal activity expected to be on the upper side of normal. Although a repeat of the widespread flooding rains of last season cannot be ruled out, the chances are not as great in the absence of a well-established La Niña.
The outlook for the coming season was issued today by the Bureau of Meteorology at the official launch of the annual campaign to raise awareness of the various risks associated with natural hazards.
The Bureau's Regional Director, Jim Davidson described the general climate pattern as being essentially a neutral one which is expected to remain that way during the Spring and Summer months. However there were some indicators (such as a positive Southern Oscillation Index) that suggest the current bias towards the La Niña side of neutral could continue.
Since 1980, over the August-October period, there have been three occasions with a general climate pattern somewhat similar to this one. It is interesting to note that in each of the following seasons a Category 2 or Category 3 cyclone made landfall on the east coast - namely Aivu, Rona, and Abigail.
"A coastal crossing by a destructive cyclone during the coming season should be seriously considered in preparations" Mr Davidson said. "We know that it only takes a single land-falling cyclone to cause a disaster and the continuing growth in coastal development is increasing community vulnerability."
Mr Davidson emphasized, as he has in the past, that early preparation was a key element in disaster mitigation strategy. He also reaffirmed the need to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods - and to have a basic understanding of the Bureau's warning services.
The annual pre-season campaign commences in Mackay on Tuesday (21 October), in partnership with the Queensland Departments of Emergency Services, Public Works, and Environmental Protection Agency. Between now and December, the campaign trail will lead to major coastal and inland centres, with a focus on cyclone, storm tide and flood awareness, preparedness and response
At all times, the official source of information on tropical cyclones is the Bureau's web page at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone. During a cyclone, the latest information from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is also available by dialing 1300 659 212 (for the cost of a local call).
Flood, river and rainfall information is regularly updated at http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld. Flood Warnings are also available by dialing 1300 659 219 (for the cost of a local call).
This Outlook only applies to the Coral Sea and Queensland's east coast. The Seasonal Outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria is issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office.
The Bureau is celebrating its Centenary in 2008, and during the year, the Queensland Regional Office relocated its operations to 69 Ann St Brisbane, which is also the new home of the Queensland Tropical Cyclone and Flood Warning Centres.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/seasonal/