Disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean (Is invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Looking at trends from 00Z to 12Z, it looks like the GFS is becoming more bullish on a tropical low forming in the extreme SW Caribbean. The 12Z has a low at 216 hours moving slowly NNE through 384 hours. Obviously we need to see some more run-to-run consistency and the fact that we are talking 216+ hours means there is a higher probability it will not form than it will form.

216 hours:


384 hours:


ECMWF 216 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8102400!!/

ECMWF 240 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8102400!!/

[Blown Away]

Gatorcane, I admire you hanging on and I'm about to accept the season is over, especially for the CONUS. I enjoy Storm2k, so discussing weather that has a very low probability is ok w/ me. The only thing I'm hanging onto is I think 1985 was used as an analog year for this season and Hurricane Kate occured during mid/late November 1985, so maybe there are 1 or 2 left in the bag.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope, within the next 15 days, when this does or does not come to fruition, I will be able to post a 288 or 312 hour GFS prediction of sub 540 dm 1000-540 dm thicknesses and sub-freezing precip over Houston, or as exciting, and more realistic, the 540 dm, 284 dm and 850 mb freezing line spread apart, with the 850 mb freezing line near or even just North of my house, with an over-running precip pattern, suggesting a shallow cold air mass with work cancelling sleet or freezing rain for my house.

The longer range Euro suggests generally low pressure in the Caribbean, and possibly an impressive Central Plains severe weather event for Halloween

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, I admire you hanging on and I'm about to accept the season is over, especially for the CONUS. I enjoy Storm2k, so discussing weather that has a very low probability is ok w/ me. The only thing I'm hanging onto is I think 1985 was used as an analog year for this season and Hurricane Kate occured during mid/late November 1985, so maybe there are 1 or 2 left in the bag.

I think the chances of this tropical cyclone forming in the SW Caribbean as the GFS/Euro suggest are very small but there is ZERO to talk about right now, so I admit I am grasping

and technically the hurricane season does run through November also. In November, about the only area in the Atlantic Basin that climatologically favors development is the SW or W Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12Z GFS forms, then dissipates, a possible tropical depression near 10ºN and 40ºW. That might get tagged an invest, if we're lucky.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian also has that as a depression, and seems to have a skinny ridge steering it in the general direction of the NE Caribbean (but not there yet) on Day 6.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian also has that as a depression, and seems to have a skinny ridge steering it in the general direction of the NE Caribbean (but not there yet) on Day 6.

GFS kind of losing it, but Canadian, and well, it is the end of October, gotta grab excitement where it can be found until Texas snow season starts, has a system approaching the Lesser Antilles.

[jinftl]

Ed...no shame in the enthusiasm....i respect someone who is passionate about something to be honest...but there is a Winter Weather forum....please try and not turn the Talkin Tropics forum into a promo for GFS runs showing winter weather in Texas...or a promo for posts you have made in the Winter Weather forum showing these threats.

Tantalizing mentions of winter weather in Texas have made it in to 3 of the most current threads just today in the TT forum! It is almost an internal, member-based form of spam....it is frequent, it is unrelated, and it is directing us to other areas, in this case an apparent personal blog being carried on in S2K! Then to ask if your thread was going to be the last one for the year in the forum you were posting it? S2K has lost control of itself if members are openly pondering if it is done.... after they make sure to have the last word of course! Last storm of season....now last thread of the season....mother nature gets and will always get the last word on all things weather!

I will go with the idea that you meant that you were starting the last thread on any activity that may develop into a storm this season. But there is no such activity now....it was a thread to ponder if it was the last thread and throw in a texas gfs winter teaser!!! Can't spin it any other way.

The S2K forum format is something we all have come to value so much...the format works...let's not lose the integrity of the different forums by making it into anythng less than the 'go to' place for the type of weather someone is looking to for guidance, information, discussion, etc. Not everyone is a Winter Weather enthusiast...just as everyone may not be interested in reading the Wilma anniversary advisories I posted earlier. But just because that means something to me doesn't mean I am going to go into the Winter Weather forum and post 'until winter really kicks in, let's remember the strongest hurricane in atlantic history' in multiple threads!

We are all weather enthusiasts.....weather nuts probably in many cases (i am a proud member of that club)...but keeping posts suited to the forum you are in prevents us from becoming 'mixed nuts'!!! I mean you no disrespect...and only ask that the forum and related content be respected as well in accordance with what makes S2K what it is.

Canadian also has that as a depression, and seems to have a skinny ridge steering it in the general direction of the NE Caribbean (but not there yet) on Day 6.

GFS kind of losing it, but Canadian, and well, it is the end of October, gotta grab excitement where it can be found until Texas snow season starts, has a system approaching the Lesser Antilles.

[Sanibel]

200 hours is fantasy.

Coolest air of the fall down here now. 71 degrees feels cold because of blood used to summer heat.

Another system is always possible, but it will wreck my 15-9-4 2008 prediction.

[Ed Mahmoud]

jfintl

I know how painful the lack of winter weather can be for someone in South Florida. I myself spent a year in Orlando, FL 32813.


Well, if showing 2 tropical models and a satellite of a mildy disturbed area in the tropics isn't talking tropics, I plead guilty.

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to show this tropical system. Latest 06Z has it moving north from the SW Caribbean and passing just east of South Florida:

[gatorcane]

The GFS low is still there. Considering how persistent it has been in forming this tropical low in the SW Caribbean, it may just happen. You can see it forms a low at 144 hours and deepens it by 228 hours as it drifts NNE.

[Blown Away]

Seems reasonable, the SST's are still warm enough and the GFS has been persistent with this low.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS moves this low a bit more north on this run:

Forms at 144 hours in the SW Caribbean:


Moves North into the NW Caribbean then appears to rapidly shoot off to the NNE ahead of a front through
florida:

[wxman57]

Right, a hurricane in the Caribbean and snowing in Dallas on the same day. I believe the 15-day GFS.

[Brent]

Right, a hurricane in the Caribbean and snowing in Dallas on the same day. I believe the 15-day GFS.

Time to give it up gatorcane.

[gatorcane]

Right, a hurricane in the Caribbean and snowing in Dallas on the same day. I believe the 15-day GFS.

Wxman the GFS has been pegging this tropical cyclone in the 8-10 (not 15) day range and has been very consistent. Now it shows a formidable system in the Western Caribbean that moves NE over Cuba staying well south of the CONUS and Southern Florida on this run. I believe it is predicting this low to form off the tail end of the powerful CONUS front that has moved into the Western Caribbean and is pulling up stationary in the Western Caribbean.

Here we are with the low forming in the SW Caribbean 5 days from now:



At 204 hours it has deepened into a formidable system moving off to the NNE


Then by 276 hours it starts to move quickly off to the NE through Cuba and the Bahamas (east of South Florida):


This blowup in the SW Caribbean could be the seminal stages of the GFS tropical cyclone:

[gatorcane]

Right, a hurricane in the Caribbean and snowing in Dallas on the same day. I believe the 15-day GFS.

Time to give it up gatorcane.

lol well its still hurricane season throughout all of November!

[bvigal]

Why I won't laugh at this... I know the odds are slim, but down here we might be construed as superstitious about declaring "it's over", even this late. And we do pay attention to the western Caribbean. Here's why.

In November 1999, I remember watching with growing concern an area of clouds and convection in the western Caribbean. For several days, it meanered around, disorganized, but it didn't go away.
It became an invest, then a storm.

late on the 9th - invest


Lenny - a depression with an eye!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999lenny.html
Hurricane Lenny was the fifth category-four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) of the 1999 season - a record. This hurricane had a major impact on numerous land areas in the Caribbean Sea. Moreover, Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 113-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record.

a. Synoptic History
A broad area of low pressure was first identified in the southwest Caribbean Sea early on 8 November. Later that day, there was sufficient convective banding to warrant a T1.0 Dvorak satellite-based intensity classification from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) at TPC. Although thunderstorm activity associated with the low remained poorly organized, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds occurred over the northwest Caribbean Sea and adjacent portions of Central America and Mexico for several days. On 12 November, a U.S. Air Force Reserve (USAFR) Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance but failed to find a well-defined surface circulation center. Early on the 13th, satellite imagery showed that the system was gradually becoming better organized. Later that afternoon the Hurricane Hunters found 30 knot surface winds and a 1003 mb central pressure. Tropical Depression Sixteen formed about 150 n mi south of the Cayman Islands at 1800 UTC 13 November (This is when the best track begins in Table 1 and Figure 1). By mid morning of the 14th, the overall organization of the depression was improving and the depression was estimated to have become Tropical Storm Lenny at 1200 UTC 14 November.


HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1699
2100Z WED NOV 17 1999

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 64.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 45SW 25NW
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE 60SW 40NW
34 KT.......100NE 180SE 125SW 90NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW


HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED NOV 17 1999

LENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ABOUT 8
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS CONTROLLING THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THIS GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THE SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE DAY IS THE UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION
OF LENNY...INDICATING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700
MB HAS FALLEN TO 927 MB WHILE A DROP MEASURED 934 MB. THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 149 KNOTS. THE MEAN BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FROM DROPSONDES ARE 155 KNOTS AND PEAK WINDS REACHED 180
KNOTS AT THE 891-MB LEVEL A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. BASED ON THAT
INFORMATION...INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED TO 130 KNOTS.
LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.


the eye on 17th

[Ed Mahmoud]

Right, a hurricane in the Caribbean and snowing in Dallas on the same day. I believe the 15-day GFS.

The new 0Z GFS has cancelled the Dallas snow party. But it has time to bring it back. Really, early to mid November would be a little early for that joyous event.


Euro has a nearly stationary and very weak low pressure off Nicaragua in a week...



6Z GFS has weak low pressure, and rain, next week