WPAC: Tropical Storm 0822 Dolphin (TS 27W) - Discussion

[wyq614]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14N 165E WSW 20 KT

AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED ON THE TAIL END OF A
SHEARLINE HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081810Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW
A WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING MOSTLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDERNEATH A LONG WAVE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, DETACH FROM
THE SHEARLINE AND MOVE TO THE WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 12N 160E WEST 15 KT.

[Chacor]

Tropical Depression 27W.

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.1N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.4N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 150.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 100816Z QUIKSCAT
PASS, AND 100922Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
WITH 25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF TD 27W WILL TRACK IT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS IT REORIENTS DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING
EASTWARD, NORTH OF THE RIDGE. IN LATER TAUS TD 27W WILL TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PHILLIPINES THAT EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP AS TD 27W IS LOCATED UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW
BEING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS RAPID DECREASE IN SHEAR IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

I'm speechless at the recognition of this area of low pressure with very poorly organized convection as a tropical depression.

[Chacor]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 151E WEST 15 KT.

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 101623
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (27W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST THU DEC 11 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W FORMS EAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AS OF 2 AM CHST.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AS OF 2 AM CHST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 74 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA.
390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN.
390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 11.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 AM CHST.

$$

ZIOBRO

[HURAKAN]

30kts-1000mb

Nice loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

Looking a lot better with a blow-up of convection over the center.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 110105
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST THU DEC 11 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W MOVING CLOSER TO GUAM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
27W...BASED ON THE GUAM DOPPLER RADAR AND VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 144 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
181 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 12.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
CHST.

$$

CHAN

[HURAKAN]

This system is giving a bad name to the WPAC storms that tend to be robust and large.

[HURAKAN]

11/0230 UTC 12.9N 145.7E T2.0/2.0 27W -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 DEC 2008 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 12:35:54 N Lon : 146:36:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -46.1C Cloud Region Temp : -44.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HurricaneBill]

Overall, a pretty lackluster year for the WPAC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a small tropical storm.

TPPN10 PGTW 111805

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 13.0N

D. 142.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 DEC 2008 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:12:00 N Lon : 142:08:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -68.2C Cloud Region Temp : -56.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 111800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 58N 166E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 64N 179E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 45N 150E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 150E TO 45N 154E 45N 159E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 150E TO 40N 147E 36N 141E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 57N 164E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 982 HPA
AT 59N 151E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 12.5N 142.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 40N 163E ENE 35 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 123E ENE 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.3N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.0N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.4N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 141.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST
OF YAP, HAS INTENSIFIED AND TRACKED WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY DISSI-
PATE AND MOVE ON A MORE WEST-SOUTWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS BOHOL,
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.4N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.4N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.4N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.7N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 140.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK WEST BUT
SLOWED DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED AT A FASTER PACE AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER UP TO 55 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND HEAD TOWARDS CENTRAL LUZON,
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND
130300Z.//
NNNN


Major changes in the forecast.