Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

To avoid having 150 or more threads from every model run,here is one thread where you can post model runs as a big tent for them hinting at something developing.Lets start the posting of model runs for this year and it looks like things are starting very early.

A low pressure NE of the Leewards that looks warm core by some models than others is depicted by GFS,EURO,CMC,UKMET and NOGAPS.If you ask me about development from this,I say less than 2%.

00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

00z UKMET



00z NOGAPS=Has it too but more weaker.




00z CMC=More stronger low.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The 00z EURO also shows the low pressure NE of the Leewards.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9030400!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is wrapping the 20º into it on the GFS, and the wind barbs seem to suggest a cold front or frontal trough to its South.

Only the Canadian seems to show a nice rounded isobar pattern with a significant low. And it doesn't really show a warm core system, although it does try.




But it is in as good a place as one can expect for March, and maybe the frontal low will finish the occlusion shown beginning at hour 96, the old front will wash out, and we'll have something to talk about.

The 6Z looks at least somewhat sub-tropical-ish.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS despìcts this low pressure a little more south in latitud than the 00z run.

12z GFS at 72 hours:



12z GFS at 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

12z GFS at 96 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

12z GFS at 120 hours: Adios

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

The 12z Canadian:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The 12z EURO still is showing the low pressure:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9030412!!/

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see here from the models in respect to this low pressure.Yes,the models still show it,but nothing that looks like a development at all.

12z Euro:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9030512!!/

12z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

12z UKMET,CMC and NOGAPS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Next?

[gatorcane]

Both CMC and GFS show some kind of low trying to develop in the BOC at 160+ hours.

[wxman57]

Both CMC and GFS show some kind of low trying to develop in the BOC at 160+ hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp27.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png

Just a frontal occlusion. Nothing tropical.

[cycloneye]

This is like years ahead but possibly there may be something to watch in the next runs from GFS in the comming days to see if they are consistent and if other models joins GFS later..SW Caribbean is the area to watch.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[tolakram]

There is already an area of disturbed weather down there that I was tempted to post about.

[crownweather]

GFS model continues to waver back and forth on development in the SW Caribbean from 324 to 384 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_336l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_348l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_384l.gif

As has been previously mentioned....will be interested to see if there is consistency or if other models pick up on this.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the shear values in the Western Caribbean will diminuish by the end of April,opening the door to maybe some cyclonegeneris as GFS has shown in the past runs.Of course time will tell what will occur in the next couple of weeks if anything.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... gpshrcolor

[Vortex]

GFS continues to depict development over the sw/western carribean as we head into the second week of May. Here's a look at a rather impressive 12Z at 372.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS H-384 VERY impressive for anytime in May


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[cycloneye]

Loop of that 12z GFS run.However,as its the first run of GFS since it has showing a SW Caribbean system that goes down to 1001 mbs,I would not jump ahead and say it may happen.I think we will have to wait for more runs of this model and see also if other models join later.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[somethingfunny]

I'm curious because I don't follow the models very often - has a 384hour run initializing a tropical cyclone ever verified....ever?

[gatorcane]

GFS H-384 VERY impressive for anytime in May


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Very impressive for sure. It looks like it is nearly exactly what it did when it forecasted Paloma way out in advance...(October 2008). Even looks like the same strength and movement....NNE in Western Carib then over Central or Eastern Cuba potentially.

It looks like it develops from some kind of system way down in the SW Carib at around 240 hours -- needless to say very far out.

The CMC is also spinning up something weird but weak..farther east and a bit faster. It may not even be the same thing:

Until I see the ECMWF or UKMET on board I'm not buying either scenario....

[hurricanetrack]

Perhaps we can look and figure out WHY the GFS is suggesting this development. Are there legit reasons behind it? Possible MJO being favorable? SSTs warm enough? Other conditions that would lend to allowing this to happen. We will know in 2 weeks huh? Almost that time- it would be incredible to see it happen pre-June and THAT early too.

[Vortex]

18Z very impressure at H-372

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372l.gif

Deepens further at H-384 on the 18z run


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[MGC]

Development in the SW Carb in mid May does happen every now and then.....MGC

[Vortex]

4-26 00z run now develops strong TS/Hurricane over the Western Carribean in about 1.5-2weeks. Conditions alofts look very favorable especially for May.

H-384

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[cycloneye]

What we have to watch is if the GFS continues to show the SW Caribbean development,but more important,if other models join GFS when the 240 hour timeframe arrives in terms of the EURO (ECMWF) model and at 144 hours when UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC start.