Breaking news:SSD T number 4.0 65kts Do we have a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

There you can see the chart that shows the T numbers and intensity from sat estimates and 4.0 is 65 kts so we have a hurricane tonight.Now we will see if recon is at the same page as the SSD dvorak estimates from sat .

[OtherHD]

Not unless recon finds high enough winds

[wx247]

Which is what Luis said... we shall see what recon. finds.

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081600

However the models are iniciating the 00:00 UTC run at 55 kts so we have to wait for recon.

[Stormsfury]

I don't think Erika will be upgraded unless RECON verifies at least 75 kt winds at Flight level.

SF

[JetMaxx]

Yes IMO it's now a hurricane...an intensifying hurricane, and I won't be surprised if sustained winds at landfall are 90-100 mph or more...with gusts over 115 mph. The last visible images gave indications of significant strengthening...the LLC is imbedded in the center of the deepest convection....radar now indicates a well defined eye and intensifying eyewall.

BRO 248 n mi range
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS ... latest.gif

If I lived in Cameron and Willacy counties, I'd be bracing myself for a significant damaging hurricane (wind gusts over 111 mph - or like a F2 tornado).

It's certainly not likely, but not impossible Erika could reach cat-3 intensity before landfall....IF rapid deepening is indeed underway. In August of 1970, hurricane Celia's central pressure fell from 988 mb to 945 mb in the final 16 hours before landfall at Corpus Christi...while sustained winds increased from 75-80 mph to 130 mph :o

PW

[PTrackerLA]

I'm checking in from Colorado right now, I didn't even know we had a Gulf storm! My thoughts are with everyone in deep south Texas as this is definately a strengthening storm. Geez, this all happened so fast!

[wow]

Yes IMO it's now a hurricane...an intensifying hurricane, and I won't be surprised if sustained winds at landfall are 90-100 mph or more...with gusts over 115 mph. The last visible images gave indications of significant strengthening...the LLC is imbedded in the center of the deepest convection....radar now indicates a well defined eye and intensifying eyewall.

BRO 248 n mi range
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS ... latest.gif

If I lived in Cameron and Willacy counties, I'd be bracing myself for a significant damaging hurricane (wind gusts over 111 mph - or like a F2 tornado).

It's certainly not likely, but not impossible Erika could reach cat-3 intensity before landfall....IF rapid deepening is indeed underway. In August of 1970, hurricane Celia's central pressure fell from 988 mb to 945 mb in the final 16 hours before landfall at Corpus Christi...while sustained winds increased from 75-80 mph to 130 mph :o

PW

Sorry.. no eye yet.