How do you forecast Tropcial Cyclones?

[vbhoutex]

Some of our older/longer standing members will remember that STORM2K had our own forecast teams for a while in our infancy and were putting out TC forecasts on a regular schedule. We also had some CONUS forecasters besides the tropical team. We discontinued that practice because of a request from Max Mayfield. Although we do not put out regular forecasts any longer we still encourage individuals to post their own forecasts, both amateur and professional alike, of course with the required S2K disclaimer). Thus comes my question(because I found and reread an explanation of some of the parameters used for forecasting TC cyclogenesis that I posted here many years ago). This question is to both our amateur(any level) and professional forecasters. What parameters do you use to forecast TC cyclogenesis and TC's as they progress through their existence? Please include as much information as you can without getting so long winded and technical that those less versed can't understand or get bored reading.

Hopefully we can all learn from this.

[Derek Ortt]

1. Use the guidance. You cannot forecast TCs without them. I primarily use the MM5 (since I run the model myself) and consensus models, assuming there are no major flaws in the synoptic initilaization and the solutions are dynamically consistent

2. See rule #1. That is how important numerical models are and any forecasting improvements come from improved modeling

[MGC]

Being from the old school, I try to figure out the atmosphere days in advance, kinda like playing a good game of chess. I've gotten fairly good at recognizing upper level trends and using satellite loops to formulate a educated guess at where a particular system will end up. I've had my successes and busts. I only look at the models after I've taken a few minutes to look at things and see if the models agree with me......MGC

[vbhoutex]

Being from the old school, I try to figure out the atmosphere days in advance, kinda like playing a good game of chess. I've gotten fairly good at recognizing upper level trends and using satellite loops to formulate a educated guess at where a particular system will end up. I've had my successes and busts. I only look at the models after I've taken a few minutes to look at things and see if the models agree with me......MGC

As much as I know the models are needed and very useful I pretty much think like you do on this. Of course there are many other parameters to look at to at least make an educated guess as to where and or when TC cyclogenesis may occurr. Then of course it is a different(in some aspects)set of parameters that are used to forecast the track and intensity, but it is amazing, how heavily tied together it all is.

I remember in particular on big bust I had(along with Dave Tolleris)when we forgot to look further West to see the incoming trough and high pressure behind it that eventually pushed Hurricane Lili into Louisiana instead of SE TX.(we were insisting that Lili would hit TX against everyone else's LA predictions) One mistake many amateurs, such as myself, make is forgetting to look at the air patterns at the different levels that would be steering a TC, even if those steering mechanisms may be hundreds and hundreds of miles away.

[MGC]

The trough that pushed Charley into Punta Gorda was a bust for me. I initially thought Charley would end up north of Tampa till I bothered to look at the UL across the entire continent. Seeing how strong it was convinced me that Charley would hit south of Tampa. That trough did bring us 5 consecutive morning of record lows for August, the longest string of record lows in weather history here on the Coast......MGC