First Tropical Wave Watch 2009 Thread, South Florida

[gatorcane]

Let's use this thread to track/discuss anything about the first tropical wave for South Florida.

Tropical waves move in from the East, and usually increase the wind and rainfall coverage as the wave passes. Winds are typically NE to ENE ahead of the wave with some subsidence capping rainfall but once the axis passes through, the winds shift to the SE and scattered showers move in from the Gulf Stream. Typical wave windspeeds are anywhere between 10-30mph with gusts as high as 40-45mph in some of the strongest most showers and thunderstorms, although typical gusts are up to about 30mph.

Right now the extended forecast does not show the first tropical wave impacting South Florida. It's interesting to note that runs of the GFS from over the weekend were at one time showing the first tropical wave of the season to pass through the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and SE Coast of Florida.

But the latest runs show a trough with a low that gets sucked NE ahead of a Bermuda High ridge:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 031808
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT BY TUESDAY FOR
A LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND STRONGER SEABREEZES. THIS RIDGE MOVES
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
STARTING TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
THE 12Z GFS40 RUN STILL IS DEPICTING A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR EASTERLY WAVE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BUT IT TURNS IT NORTH AND THEN EAST AROUND THE STRONGER PART OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SEVERAL DAYS AGO IT APPEARED THAT WE
WOULD SEE A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THIS AREA BUT THINGS CHANGE.
MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH AT AT EAST
SECTIONS. LOOKING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND GETS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND STALLS WITH NOT MUCH
EFFECT ON US

[Gustywind]

Let's use this thread to track/discuss anything about the first tropical wave for South Florida.

Tropical waves move in from the East, and usually increase the wind and rainfall coverage as the wave passes. Winds are typically NE to ENE ahead of the wave with some subsidence capping rainfall but once the axis passes through, the winds shift to the SE and scattered showers move in from the Gulf Stream. Typical wave windspeeds are anywhere between 10-30mph with gusts as high as 40-45mph in some of the strongest most showers and thunderstorms, although typical gusts are up to about 30mph.

Right now the extended forecast does not show the first tropical wave impacting South Florida. It's interesting to note that runs of the GFS from over the weekend were at one time showing the first tropical wave of the season to pass through the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and SE Coast of Florida.

But the latest runs show a trough with a low that gets sucked NE ahead of a Bermuda High ridge:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 031808
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT BY TUESDAY FOR
A LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND STRONGER SEABREEZES. THIS RIDGE MOVES
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
STARTING TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
THE 12Z GFS40 RUN STILL IS DEPICTING A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR EASTERLY WAVE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BUT IT TURNS IT NORTH AND THEN EAST AROUND THE STRONGER PART OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SEVERAL DAYS AGO IT APPEARED THAT WE
WOULD SEE A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THIS AREA BUT THINGS CHANGE.
MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH AT AT EAST
SECTIONS. LOOKING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND GETS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND STALLS WITH NOT MUCH
EFFECT ON US

Tkanks for the nice analysis good pupill i appreciate...

[boca]

We need a drought buster here in S FLA. No rain in sight yet.Maybe we can sticky this thread. Maybe the tail of the system might make it to Florida,but with stubborn high pressure it might squash the moisture out of it.

[dixiebreeze]

I hear that, Boca. We need rain badly here in W. Central Fla., too.

[robbielyn]

We need a drought buster here in S FLA. No rain in sight yet.Maybe we can sticky this thread. Maybe the tail of the system might make it to Florida,but with stubborn high pressure it might squash the moisture out of it.

May is usually a dry month. Rainy season starts in June you know it and wishing for it well maybe you can do a rain dance or something lol. We need it here to but wxman says three more weeks before the moisture content is high enough to create the big thunderstorms. As much as I like ts's, I sure hate the hot sauna feel to the summer. I like the temps the way they are now with relatively low humidity. You can't win here. Want rain? Sweat like a banche. Want cooler dryer weather? No rain. Such is the wonderful life here in florida.