I know it's very early in the season, but with the trough off the U.S. east coast, is a pattern similar to 2006 likely for this year? Seems that "troughiness" pattern held through much of 2006, steering storms away from the continental U.S. I also recall a lot of upper wind shear in areas where development usually occurs.
I know, too, that the position of the Bermuda High is very important. I saw this quote from the Lake Charles National Weather Service discussion from today (6/24/09):
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY WINDS.
Perhaps the worst of the drought and excessive heat for this area may finally give way to more typical summer weather. Does this blurb on the Bermuda High also mean its position will return to about where it should be relative to this time of year? Farther south? Also, on the northern Gulf Coast, this June pattern we're in now is somewhat comparable to 1980, which may also be a possible "analog" season. This has been mentioned in previous posts. The only significant storm (Allen) stayed well to the south until close to landfall.
I'm interested in opinions from others on the board who are much more knowledgeable than myself.
2006 Pattern Repeat?
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2006 Pattern Repeat?
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