South Florida Hurricane Climatology for July

[jinftl]

Only 4 tropical storms...and no hurricanes...have effected south florida in the month of July...a month which the NWS Miami terms an 'inactive one'...

From NWS Miami:

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - July
July is typically an inactive month for tropical storm and hurricane formation. However, on average, the first named storm in the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) occurs by July 10th. Tropical systems are most likely to develop in July across the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast, or near the Lesser Antilles. Storms that form have a tendency to track across the central and western Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana and Texas or up the east coast of the U.S. towards the Carolinas.

Although July is typically inactive, tropical systems have affected Mainland South Florida during this month. In fact, 4 tropical storms have impacted the local area in July, but no hurricanes. The last tropical storm to directly impact the area in July was on July 23, 1985, when Tropical Storm Bob affected South Florida.

Here is a listing of the tropical systems which have impacted Mainland South Florida during the month of July:

July 2, 1878 – Tropical Storm
This tropical storm developed on July 1st over the central Gulf of Mexico, then moved almost due east making landfall near Naples on July 2nd, then moving northeast and off the east central Florida coast later that same day.

July 30, 1899 – Tropical Storm
This tropical storm moved across the upper Keys, affecting Mainland South Florida on July 30th.

July 28, 1936 – Tropical Storm
This storm developed over the Bahamas on July 27th, moving west-northwest across far southern Miami-Dade County and Mainland Monroe County on July 28th.

July 23, 1985 – Tropical Storm Bob
This storm developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on July 21st, then moved slowly east towards the southwest Florida coast on the 22nd, making landfall on the 23rd near Naples. The storm then moved northeast exiting the Florida coast east of Lake Okeechobee.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/July_SoFLTC.pdf

[cpdaman]

wow i didn't realize the tropical threat was SOOO low for S. florida in the month.....

i mean i understood a storm forms like every other july.....but i didn't realize the prevailing patterns favored the gulf side and/or carolina's that much more...and S.FL never been hit by a cane in the month.....that's good news...just a tad suprised since records go back 120 plus year.....good to know and thanks for the post

BTW it's not like S.Fl really needs the rain

[wxman57]

Use the Coastal Services Center track viewer. Select "Place Name" and choose a point in south Florida for the place (State - Florida, then either a county or a city name), click "next", then choose a range distance to search and select the month of July then "Submit"

Here's the link:
http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Here's what I got doing a search for all named storms passing 100nm from Miami-Dade County from 1851-2008 in July. Note that the only "named" storm to hit was Bob in 1985. All others hit prior to 1936. July is a quiet month for south FL, historically.

[Lurker]

Thanks for posting this. South Florida's peak season occurs in October correct?

Only 4 tropical storms...and no hurricanes...have effected south florida in the month of July...a month which the NWS Miami terms an 'inactive one'...

From NWS Miami:

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - July
July is typically an inactive month for tropical storm and hurricane formation. However, on average, the first named storm in the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) occurs by July 10th. Tropical systems are most likely to develop in July across the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast, or near the Lesser Antilles. Storms that form have a tendency to track across the central and western Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana and Texas or up the east coast of the U.S. towards the Carolinas.

Although July is typically inactive, tropical systems have affected Mainland South Florida during this month. In fact, 4 tropical storms have impacted the local area in July, but no hurricanes. The last tropical storm to directly impact the area in July was on July 23, 1985, when Tropical Storm Bob affected South Florida.

Here is a listing of the tropical systems which have impacted Mainland South Florida during the month of July:

July 2, 1878 – Tropical Storm
This tropical storm developed on July 1st over the central Gulf of Mexico, then moved almost due east making landfall near Naples on July 2nd, then moving northeast and off the east central Florida coast later that same day.

July 30, 1899 – Tropical Storm
This tropical storm moved across the upper Keys, affecting Mainland South Florida on July 30th.

July 28, 1936 – Tropical Storm
This storm developed over the Bahamas on July 27th, moving west-northwest across far southern Miami-Dade County and Mainland Monroe County on July 28th.

July 23, 1985 – Tropical Storm Bob
This storm developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on July 21st, then moved slowly east towards the southwest Florida coast on the 22nd, making landfall on the 23rd near Naples. The storm then moved northeast exiting the Florida coast east of Lake Okeechobee.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/July_SoFLTC.pdf

[jinftl]

From what I have read, 90% of landfalling hurricanes in south florida take place from august 15 to october 15. Wilma was a noteable exception. For major hurricanes that have effected southeast florida, the season for that is even a bit later...the earliest ever was Andrew on 8/24 (of 1992)....the latest major cane to effect south florida was 10/24 (of 2005) for wilma.

To be honest, I was surprised to read just how little activity we have seen down here in the month of July...amazing that in 100+ years of records, no hurricanes in July. We have had more activity in November. This info was a definite reality check...and provided some perspective on how to assess the season....esp since the 'real' season is still 6 weeks away for south florida (not saying there wouldn't ever be a storm before august 15....but if i was a gambler....)

Thanks for posting this. South Florida's peak season occurs in October correct?

[cpdaman]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml

this also covers alot of the majors that came thru S.FL

i believe the vast majority of the 4's and 5's hit from the SE to E directions

any storm that manages to avoid cuba and hispanola to the north on it's westward journey

has my full attention......last year we had one major threat (for a 4/5 in s. fl) that went south and we all know the damage that did as a large surge making cat 2 giant

the close in development of the labor day storm goes to show that it doesn't take long for something to bomb out in the warm water's to our south and or east...

[jinftl]

Ike was definitely a scary prospect for those few days last summer...like staring down the barrel of a gun.Talk about staring down the barrel of a gun...not a July storm (and only peripheral effects for sfla)...this is a photo i took on fort lauderdale beach the day Hurricane Floyd was about 200 miles to the east...it's closest approach.  We weren't even under the cirrus canopy.  The waves were crashing onto the road...completely covering the sand...during high tide.  It would have been the dreaded repeat of the 1926 Miami Hurricane if it had made landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtmlhas my full attention......last year we had one major threat (for a 4/5 in s. fl)  that went south and we all know the damage that did as a large surge making cat 2 giant the close in development of the labor day storm goes to show that it doesn't take long for something to bomb out in the warm water's to our south and or east...

[cpdaman]

Hurricane floyd was the most memorable hurricane that never really effected me........it reminds me now of a stronger wilma ...it would have cut a path of damage as wide as wilma did but much worse.....i think should it have sliced west thru the NW bahamas that it would have maintained solid cat 4 ........and then it would have been 1928 de ja vu

looks like the season for majors excludes JULY based on most accepted thought.....but IKE did some things (path wise) that went strongly against climatology and when water's can support a major then they are possible...i would be wiling to be going back 500 years we have one in S. FL much earlier than late August.....NO? and yes obviously still a very small %

[Cyclone1]

Wow. To be honest, I'm pretty surprised. Figured SFLA would atleast have gotten more tropical storms in July.