Slim Chance of Gulf Development this Week

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not sure how much chance I give this, will have to wait until this afternoon to see what if anything starts to develop. Here is a piece from this mornings AFD for SE LA...


SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW THATS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PLUS TO
THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN
STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
US EAST COAST. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM THIS POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE
SOMETHING OF CONCERN AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

I guess the thinking is IF something forms it will get blocked by a building high and possibly get pushed back westward?

[lonelymike]

Not sure how much chance I give this, will have to wait until this afternoon to see what if anything starts to develop. Here is a piece from this mornings AFD for SE LA...


SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW THATS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PLUS TO
THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN
STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
US EAST COAST. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM THIS POINT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS FEATURE TO BE
SOMETHING OF CONCERN AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

I guess the thinking is IF something forms it will get blocked by a building high and possibly get pushed back westward?

It's the Nam

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yea, thats why I said not sure how much of a chance I give this of happening. Will just have to wait and see. Although there have been a few instances when systems do form in the gulf from this kind of pattern.

[wxman22]

Actually JB thinks the same thing that something may try to get going in the western Gulf this week he was right the last time we had homebrew potential with Claudette for what its worth...

[perk]

Did'nt want to start a new thread, but have anyone checked out the area of disturbed weather south of Jamaica.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106419&p=1915584#p1915584

[Dean4Storms]

If the low tracks far enough south of the coast and hangs offshore the west coast of Florida it would have a slim potential, but a big IF hangs in the balance on it!

[Aric Dunn]

watch the western and central gulf closely tonight.. we may see something come together. there is a surface trough in place and the current upper shear/divergence is aiding in convection and the shear may relax tomorrow watch for any consolidation of the convection.

[LaBreeze]

I'm sorry, I just don't see it. I'll keep an eye, but gut feeling is saying there is nothing.

[ronjon]

06Z NAM and a weaker low by the 06Z GFS. We may have something to watch in the GOM this week.

[Stormcenter]

Thanks for the post but please consider the source (NAM).

06Z NAM and a weaker low by the 06Z GFS. We may have something to watch in the GOM this week.

[Orrie]

From the NWS in Jax Fla ..

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THAT
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS COMPLICATING THE FORECAST
EVEN FURTHER. IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS BUT
IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S.

WEDNESDAY IS NOW SHAPING UP TO BE PERHAPS THE WETTEST DAY. THE
GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND BRING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THIS MAY REQUIRE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE GULF LOW. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

[bayoubebe]

What kind of effect will this possibility have on Labor Day Weekend?
We were supposed to book reservations today for a stay at Pensacola beach for LDW.

Should we not book for the beach?
Any advice would be appreciated.

[N2Storms]

[quote="bayoubebe"]What kind of effect will this possibility have on Labor Day Weekend?
We were supposed to book reservations today for a stay at Pensacola beach for LDW.

Should we not book for the beach?
Any advice would be appreciated.[/quote]



Come to Panama City Beach...we seem to have this force field around that somehow seems to cause even the most potent thunder storms to dissipate or steer around us...

[robbielyn]

PCB is beautiful to say the least. Go ahead and book the beach according to tampa nws it will stall but then cross fl and out to the atlantic. Shouldn't affect your vacay. Enjoy. Tampa NWS doesn't even mention a possibility of this developing into anything just increase precip and minor flooding of th myaaka river.

[Stormcenter]

The GOM is definitely more an area interest at least in the short then 94L is now or may ever be.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[ronjon]

I can't see this low pressure doing much with all the shear currently in the GOM. Probably baroclinically produced cold core low initially - perhaps can transition to something else with time and reduced shear.

[Orrie]

tremendous amount of convection throughout the GOM . Im wondering if it will consolidate in one area tonight . its of interest to say the least and it does have some model support ...

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion out
of N.O.

A SUPPORTING FACTOR THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS
WEAK TROPICAL LOW TO THE EAST...TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL MITIGATE ANY
TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM...SUCH AS AMPLE DRY AIR IN
THE REGION...AND CONTINUED DECENT SHEAR. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
LOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND AFFECT EASTERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY.

tremendous amount of convection throughout the GOM . Im wondering if it will consolidate in one area tonight . its of interest to say the least and it does have some model support ...

[Orrie]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion out
of N.O.

A SUPPORTING FACTOR THE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS
WEAK TROPICAL LOW TO THE EAST...TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL MITIGATE ANY
TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM...SUCH AS AMPLE DRY AIR IN
THE REGION...AND CONTINUED DECENT SHEAR. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
LOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND AFFECT EASTERN
ZONES ON THURSDAY.

tremendous amount of convection throughout the GOM . Im wondering if it will consolidate in one area tonight . its of interest to say the least and it does have some model support ...

thank you stormcenter I always enjoy reading the N.O. discussion there usually spot on..thanks again