EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
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invest_ep932009.invest
FSTDA
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U
040
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200910151224
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2009, DB, O, 2009101512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932009
EP, 93, 2009101512, , BEST, 0, 108N, 954W, 25, 0, DB
EP, 93, 2009101412, , BEST, 0, 72N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB
EP, 93, 2009101418, , BEST, 0, 77N, 933W, 20, 1009, DB
EP, 93, 2009101500, , BEST, 0, 90N, 938W, 20, 1009, DB
EP, 93, 2009101506, , BEST, 0, 100N, 945W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[cycloneye]

First Model Plots


WHXX01 KMIA 151256
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC THU OCT 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20091015 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091015 1200 091016 0000 091016 1200 091017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 95.4W 11.8N 96.9W 12.5N 98.1W 13.0N 99.7W
BAMD 10.8N 95.4W 11.6N 96.8W 12.2N 98.0W 12.7N 99.3W
BAMM 10.8N 95.4W 11.8N 96.9W 12.4N 98.1W 12.9N 99.7W
LBAR 10.8N 95.4W 11.9N 96.9W 12.6N 98.4W 13.2N 100.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091017 1200 091018 1200 091019 1200 091020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 102.0W 14.9N 107.8W 15.6N 113.4W 14.6N 116.3W
BAMD 13.5N 100.9W 15.2N 104.7W 17.8N 108.8W 20.3N 111.4W
BAMM 13.5N 101.5W 14.9N 106.4W 16.5N 111.4W 16.7N 114.7W
LBAR 14.0N 101.9W 15.5N 105.1W 16.7N 108.2W 18.4N 110.7W
SHIP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 95.4W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 93.8W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 92.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

This is the same system that tried to form in the Atlantic a few days ago but crashed into South America.

[HURAKAN]

Potential Rick in its initial stages

[somethingfunny]

A few of the global models have been picking up on this developing within a few days, then intensifying into a hurricane as it turns towards Mexico close to a week from now:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The CMC is more aggressive on the intensity but seems to be shunting 93E into the EPAC storm graveyard, while the GFS is latching onto North American trough late in the forecast period that appears be pulling 93E (as a hurricane) into the Baja or mainland Mexico. If the GFS scenario pans out it could be another rainy week for Texas as well as the less important states on our borders.

[HurricaneRobert]

Big & strong Rick:

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 11.1N 95.2W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- East Pacific

Like I said, the beginning stages

[cycloneye]

This is the same system that tried to form in the Atlantic a few days ago but crashed into South America.

For those who forgot,that wave was invest 92L.

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[HURAKAN]

Close to the coast

[HURAKAN]

The circulation appears to be elongated from NE-SW but overall, it's looking pretty healthy

[HURAKAN]

Taking shape

[Macrocane]

It is trying to organize but I'm not sure if the circulation has completely reached the surface, quikscat doesn't show a well defined center but it looks much better than yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looking very solid

[cycloneye]

Code Red

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[Macrocane]

LOL I was going to say "maybe code red tonight" but it was sooner than I expected.

[HURAKAN]

Not surprised a bit. Looks like Rick is around the corner.

[HurricaneRobert]

It will be interesting to see if it gets bigger than Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Again, a tricky forecast for soon to be Rick. This may well be another Hurricane Kenna 2002 type system.

[cycloneye]

Here is Kenna.