Looking Good

[chadtm80]

Well its got the convection it needs... Now where the heck is the spin????







Also here is the link to Buoys in the area http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... n_bouy.htm

[chadtm80]

[wxman57]

Actually, I see the unstable convection as its main problem. Taking a look at the full day's IR loop, convection that had been firing along the eastern portion of the wave began to fire near the leading edge late this afternoon. But the convection isn't very stable. Just in the last few frames, there is evidence that cloud tops are once-again warming - an indication that this new flare-up may be declining soon. The convection needs to stabilize around a single point for greater than just a few hours for development to proceed, and that hasn't happened yet.

[Steve H.]

It will come Chad. There is some rotation already which, if the convection continues to expand, will easily work down to the surface. Give it time. This one is destined to cut through the islands I think; either Haiti or eastern Cuba. Don't think it will make it to Jamaica. IF it develops during the next day or two. Cheers!!

[chadtm80]

Taking a look at the full day's IR loop, convection that had been firing along the eastern portion of the wave began to fire near the leading edge late this afternoon

Its been doing that for the last couple of days actually... Sort of a tug of war thing going on there

[ColdFront77]

Unstable convection can eventually lead to stable convection. No matter what "kind" of convection there is, it is still convection that needs to be watched for possible development.

Yes, Chad... a tug of war with this elongated wave. There is convection over some favorable waters of the Atlantic, approaching the islands.

What factors are inhibiting development?

[chadtm80]

Just in the last few frames, there is evidence that cloud tops are once-again warming

What loop are you looking at?

[wxman57]

Just in the last few frames, there is evidence that cloud tops are once-again warming

What loop are you looking at?

I'm looking at our own images. We have a floater going on the disturbance. New images are updated the second they're downloaded from satellite. You can't see it, it's password-protected.

[chadtm80]

Kewl... Keep us updated!

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Check thisone out!!

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC.html


Nice radar from Meteofrance!

[Stormsfury]

I'm a little concerned about a little bit of a SE'ly upper level surge in winds to the west of the large area of convection around 60º-61ºW, evident on WV imagery, not to mention the Eastern Caribbean in general. If any development will occur, it'll take a couple of days for some organization to occur.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[chadtm80]

Its becoming obvious to me now as well wxman

[Anonymous]

I was looking at something earlier today and read that the dry air around the wave was pretty much forcing it one way and elongating it and stopping it from developing as fast as it would if all that dry air around it wasn't there. But I am not the expert just passing along what I read.

Toodles
Lea Anne

[Steve H.]

Looks like we have an LCC forming with convection building around it as it goes thru the islands. The convection seems to have given birth.

[chadtm80]

I Just saw that and was about to come here and ask about it... It sure looks like it to my "un trained" eye

[vbhoutex]

I Just saw that and was about to come here and ask about it... It sure looks like it to my "un trained" eye

I guess your "untrained" eye is getting better. I have included the apparent development of a circulation center in the Storm2K update. It will be interesting to se if the next update from NHC mentions this since there is no evidence of it in the TWO or TWD so far. Now if we can get you to use both eyes....LOLOLOL!!! J/K

[ameriwx2003]

Yes, it sure looks like it is trying to get organized and that huge wave that came off of Africa should be interesting down the road as well:):):)