SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

[HURAKAN]

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S 72.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES (121231Z QUIKSCAT,
120411Z ASCAT) CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FORMING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WHILE ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLING, DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. AT
121700Z, DIEGO GARCIA REPORTED CALM WINDS WITH A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
NEAR 1006 MB AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LLCC IS A BIT ELONGATED.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS ALSO STILL EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND THERE CONTINUES TO
BE MILD DEVELOPMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS OF UKMO, GFS, NOGAPS,
AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

ABIO10 PGTW 132030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/132030Z-141800ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 131623Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE MASCARENE HIGH HAS HELPED TO
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ACCORDING TO THE
SAME ASCAT PASS, WINDS AT THE CENTER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 25
KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TO INCLUDE: LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD POLEWARD VENTING, HAVE HELPED
TO SUSTAIN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
FAIR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 73.0E TO 14.8S 67.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 71.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 132047Z AMSRE PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS (131623Z ASCAT) INDICATES
WINDS AS STRONG AS 25 KNOTS AT THE CENTER. IT IS LIKELY THE
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER, AND THE
IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO RELAX AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

13/2030 UTC 11.5S 71.2E T1.5/1.5 93S -- Southwest Indian

First estimate. 1.5 = 25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

It looks very good. I think it's time to say good bye to the ATL, EPAC and WPAC seasons and say hello to the SIO, AUS and SPAC seasons.

[Crostorm]

WTIO30 FMEE 140636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4
2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 71.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/14 18 UTC: 13.5S/71.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/11/15 06 UTC: 14.0S/71.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/11/15 18 UTC: 14.6S/72.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/16 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/16 18 UTC: 16.0S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.........
72H: 2009/11/17 06 UTC: 16.7S/71.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST HOURS. IT IS MOVING
SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH GOOD LOW LAYERS
INFLOWS
AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST ARE SUPERIOR TO 26 DG NORTH OF
16S.=

[P.K.]

Forecast track image for 04R.

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 141234


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4

2.A POSITION 2009/11/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 70.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: SO: 250 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/15 00 UTC: 13.4S/70.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/11/15 12 UTC: 13.6S/70.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/16 00 UTC: 13.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5S/69.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/11/17 00 UTC: 15.3S/68.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2009/11/17 12 UTC: 16.2S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BURST OF CONVECTION
OVER
THE SUPPOSED LLCC FIX.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, WITH A GOOD
EQUATORWARD
INFLOW, A VERY GOOD POLAR INFLOW THANKS TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES
CENTER MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
IN THE UPPER LAYERS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS POOR. AN UPPER LEVELS
OUTFLOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE
NETX 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD, ITS STEERINF
FLOW
IS A MIS LATITUDES RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH THAT WILL MOVE IN ITS EAST
PROGRESSIVLY.=

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.6S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.1S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE RECENT DIURNAL WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 140425Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC WITH A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE
EVIDENT. A 140509Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 35-KNOT WINDS AND NUMEROUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP
NEAR 1004MB. A 14/01Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
WARM CORE WITH A +2C TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES LAGGING A BIT DUE TO THE DIURNAL WANING OF DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED SOUTH. THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH
OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWARD THEN RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE (UKMO, NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 70 KNOTS AS IT NEARS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
TAU 120. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
132351Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140000).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Reunion is the governing agency in the area and they're giving it the title TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04R.

[cycloneye]

Those different titles from different agencies are confusing.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Those different titles from different agencies are confusing.

Yep, but in really the JTWC doesn't govern anything!!!

[P.K.]

:uarrow: Those different titles from different agencies are confusing.

This is good for showing the official agencies for each AOR. Click on the relevant map and the links are under "Regional Centres." You can also get the advisories from clicking the storm icons on this site.

http://severe.worldweather.org/

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Those different titles from different agencies are confusing.

This is good for showing the official agencies for each AOR. Click on the relevant map and the links are under "Regional Centres." You can also get the advisories from clicking the storm icons on this site.

http://severe.worldweather.org/

Great link added to my favorites.Thanks Peter for posting it.

[HURAKAN]

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