Invest 92L -- Remember hurricane Camille's lesson!

[JetMaxx]

We now have Invest 92L....a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean. We've tracked this wave from Africa....thusfar, it's done nothing spectacular.

So far, it isn't much different from another tropical wave that crossed the tropical Atlantic in August of 1969. That wave left Africa on August 5th....and crossed the Windward Islands on the 11-12th. This wave also looked circular and impressive at times, but passed through the Caribbean with no evidence of a closed circulation. However, on August 13th, the wave grew in size as it passed south of Hispanola....so much so that the National Hurricane Center dispatched TWO hurricane hunter aircraft the late morning of August 14th -- one towards Grand Cayman Island and the other into the southeastern Bahamas.

While the report from the Bahamas was negative, the other plane found a developing LLC south of Grand Cayman Island. By dinnertime it had exploded from a tropical wave to a 55-60 mph tropical storm....and to a 115 mph major hurricane before noon the next day. It's name was Camille.

Am I saying this wave (92L) will ever become a category 5 hurricane?
A major hurricane?, or a hurricane at all? NO...I'm just saying it can happen...because it has before. The enviromental conditions I see 3-5 days down the road suggest this system could become a signficant hurricane; and it could happen quickly -- this is borne out in the SHIPS quick intensification forecast to 90 mph at +120 hrs.

92L may not ever become a tropical depression or storm -- but IF IT DOES.....LOOKOUT! All parameters look favorable for intensification.

[Colin]

I agree...If this does begin to develop, all people in the predicted path need to take necessary hurricane precautions, and if extremely necessary, evacuate.

This may very well be our strongest storm of the season, so far.

[Johnny]

I've seen alot of people (including myself) jump on a few waves early and say that they were going to develop and become hurricanes. You are speculating a little early on this one yourself JetMaxx but there is a difference. People were jumping on waves about 4 weeks ago. We are now entering the heart of hurricane season. I agree wholeheartedly with your assumption. The time is now ripe for the pickin'. Good post.

Johnny

[timNms]

I was thinking along the same lines as you. Camille was a "nothing" until it exploded just south of Cuba. The scary thing is, once she began to explode, she didn't stop until after she was inland. Even then she had one more trick up her sleeves and that was flooding rains in the mountains.

Like you, I'm not saying this one will be a repeat of Camille, but it is possible that we could have a major cane out of it.

Now, back to the old grind. PE will end soon and the kids will be back to the room. Better get my rest while I can LOL.

Tim

[JetMaxx]

I didn't say it would ever become a hurricane, or even a tropical storm....but only that it should be closely monitored -- because of climatology and forecast favorable enviromental conditions in it's future.

[Johnny]

JetMaxx, I should of been more clear. I'm just saying that there is a difference from 3 weeks ago up to today. Climatology speaking, I agree with what you said. That's it.

[Lindaloo]

I know what you mean Perry. It is frightening isn't it? I was young when she blew in here. They had a memorial service in Biloxi at a church steeple that withstood the force of that CAT 5. There is a plaque there with all the names of the victims including FAITH, HOPE and CHARITY, three female victims of Camille who were never identified.

I fear another CAT 5 storm. Especially along the coasts where so much development has happened. Not to mention all the newbies to the coast who have never experienced a cane such as Camille. It is a scary thought, but could become a reality one day.

[ColdFront77]

It seriously goes to show that Invest 92L has potential to develop into at least a strong tropical storm, moving into a favorable environment for intensification.

1. Very warm sea surface temperatures.
2. Low upper level wind shear.
3. Moving slower than 20 to 25 miles per hour; although Claudette and Erika were and they became a very strong tropical
....storm and a "weak" hurricane, respectively.
4. The high located to the systems north is the reason for the current expectation of a turn to the north. Perhaps an upper
....level low will move over the system.

[Thunder44]

Why we could learn a lesson from Camille, I really think it's still premature to even talk about this storm having this potential at all. This is not to say this will not become a major hurricane. But we have to look at it based on what it is now and go from there.

One step at a time. I don't feel comfortable in comparing what is now a tropical wave to Camille, Andrew, or Hugo. Most tropical cyclones start out looking like innocent waves, but many do not grow into major hurricanes, or even more so go through such rapid development. Major hurricanes or more the exception or the rule.

If NHC started talking like this today in their tropical outlook about this wave, they would cause more alarm over what is just a tropical wave cuz they have the official word. The media will hype it up, and people will start to worry and may even panic over what is not even tropical cyclone yet.

I think the message is clear we shouldn't take anything for granted and we should always be prepared for the worst but I rather wait for this thing to develop into TD or TS before I start thinking about it's potential.

[alicia-w]

As far as projections go, this may not be the one to worry about. I posted this image loop in another topic, but there is a model that has one heckuva storm headed this way in about 150 hours of so... (I know, it's JUST a model.)


http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

[ColdFront77]

Sure its premature to think that this wave will be a storm like Camille, Andrew or Hugo. Perry just mentioned it because Camille rapidly intensified from a tropical wave to a hurricane in its perfect environment for rapid intensification.

[Lindaloo]

NOONE is saying that this could develop into a CAT 5 storm. It is just similar to the way she tracked. Good grief.

[ColdFront77]

Linda, we are having a discussion. No harm intended.

This system isn't taking a track much like Camille, considering where it is located.

Of course, every tropical system has to start out like this.

There have been a handful of tropical systems that develop slowly at first and then with continual favorability they develop into a tropical storm and then a hurricane.

[JetMaxx]

Why we could learn a lesson from Camille, I really think it's still premature to even talk about this storm having this potential at all. This is not to say this will not become a major hurricane. But we have to look at it based on what it is now and go from there.

One step at a time. I don't feel comfortable in comparing what is now a tropical wave to Camille, Andrew, or Hugo.

If NHC started talking like this today in their tropical outlook about this wave, they would cause more alarm over what is just a tropical wave cuz they have the official word.

Let me explain something to you son....I'm not just some wishcaster that pops in to scare folks like "Great One"; nor am I a "newbie".

I've proven my knowledge and competency regarding tropical cyclones for over three years on the internet (and know more regarding severe storms and tornadoes than tropical cyclones); if you don't choose to believe me, ask ticka...ask vbhoutex...ask Luis, or Marshall, or dozens of others that know me. I've researched hurricanes since I was 12 years of age -- and I'm nearly 42.

I've forgotten more about past major hurricanes and the synoptic conditions that spawned them than some meteorologists ever learn. In fact, during the past 3 1/2 years, quite a few meteorologists have emailed me for weather information....questions their supervisors and co-workers at the NWS office and tv weather center couldn't answer.

When I talk....people listen (at least people in the know). I believe it is both prudent and valid to give the possibilities of this system to those on this forum that live on or near the coastline; and intend to continue doing so UNLESS and UNTIL someone in charge tells me otherwise. I'm only giving coastal residents a "heads up" -- just as any weather consultant with any shred of decency would do.

No, I'm not the NHC.....so therefore am not under their protocol constraints. I'm free to say what I believe -- and when the day comes that I can't on this forum, I'll find another board to post at. I recieve invitations to forums I'm forced to turn down almost every week.

I never stated that this system will become the next hurricane Camille...only that conditions ahead of it were very favorable for intensification. If I lived in New Orleans, Galveston, Panama City Beach, or Key West...I'd appreciate someone giving me a little advance "unnofficial" warning and insight for planning purposes.

[Lindaloo]

I know Tom.

Thanks for the info Perry.

[Rainband]

Thanks Perry!!! I will be watching this wave!!!

[Thunder44]

First of all my reply wasn't an attack on you. I don't know why you are seem to be taken it so offensively. I was just stating my opinion on this talk of Camille when she was a wave and this wave we currently have. I just think that making comparsions or telling people to watch out, when there is plenty of time to watch this system before it gets to gulf coast is just premature. I know you didn't say it become would the next Camile. I didn't say you did say that either. Nor am I saying that you don't right say what you believe here. That was not the issue. I was speaking for myself and what I thought I should be talking about here.

[Anonymous]

Nothing wrong with a little heads up! Knowledge and history are our best friends. Smile everyone at least we now have something to track!

[Thunder44]

You know JB tries to give us a heads-up on things, but seems get to more critizism for hyping storms up then getting praise for being right about them.

I don't have a problem with people trying to give a heads-up, things, but I do have a mind of my own where I chose to believe what I hear or not.

[JetMaxx]

First of all my reply wasn't an attack on you. I don't know why you are seem to be taken it so offensively.

In all honesty, your original post seemed to say "hey dude..back off, stop scaring folks needlessly"....and yes, that's the way I took it. I'm truly sorry if I misinterpreted your intentions, and offer my humble apologies.

I was only giving folks something to think about...to keep in the back of their mind in the coming days; especially coastal residents from Florida to Texas. I'm a veteran Skywarn spotter, and have spent over half my life trying to save lives and keep folks ahead of the game regarding severe local storms and hurricanes.

My only intention beginning this thread was to say "look alive folks...it's late August, and this is very similar to how Camille developed"; not meant to alarm or frighten...only to make them aware, and hopefully better prepared.