Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray June forecast=18/10/5

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2010.pdf

Very interesting for all who live in the Caribbean that they have a new section (4 pages) for the Caribbean.

[clfenwi]

As cycloneye alluded to, they are now making a forecast for Caribbean ACE. Defining the Caribbean as 10-20°N, 60-88°W (roughly from Lesser Antilles to the east edge of Gulf of Honduras between South America and south coast of Cuba / north coast of Hispanola, they forecast ACE of 58. That would match the record set in 2005.

[HURAKAN]

They copied my forecast!!!

10-HURAKAN=16/9/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/10/5 / Date of Change=5/27/10

[thetruesms]

They copied my forecast!!!

10-HURAKAN=16/9/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/10/5 / Date of Change=5/27/10

Why do you think they waited until after the s2k deadline?

[HURAKAN]

They copied my forecast!!!

10-HURAKAN=16/9/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/10/5 / Date of Change=5/27/10

Why do you think they waited until after the s2k deadline?

LOL

[JonathanBelles]

Theres A LOT of research that goes into these forecasts. I could only begin to understand how much prep went into it.

[HURAKAN]

Theres A LOT of research that goes into these forecasts. I could only begin to understand how much prep went into it.

My forecast was very, very tough! I took the middle ground of NOAA's forecast!!! lol

[cycloneye]

Theres A LOT of research that goes into these forecasts. I could only begin to understand how much prep went into it.

I think from now,they are already starting to piece together all the factors to do the August forecast as it takes plenty of time to do these forecasts.

[KWT]

Theres A LOT of research that goes into these forecasts. I could only begin to understand how much prep went into it.

Without a doubt in terms of statistical research no one can touch it!

I think the only way this could bust too low would be if the La Nina strengthens too much, I think once you get below say -1.1 then your not going to get above 15NS, the only one that may beat that theory would be 1933 but that was so long ago I don't trust anything with SSTA for that far back. When you go as high as 18NS you need most things to come off in the deep tropics...but if one year is going to be able to do it...its this one for sure!

I think the fact they go so high for the Caribbean just backs up the idea that there could well be alot of acitivity further west this year, I think that backs up Joe B's ideas recently...and I tend to agree, I'd expect an upper high, be it not probably too strong will likely sit in a position that will make it hard for any system that gets to say 50W far enough south to recurve north enough to miss land.

[thetruesms]

Theres A LOT of research that goes into these forecasts. I could only begin to understand how much prep went into it.

fortunately, our CSU friends put out a paper that at least begins to describe what goes into their work, which I enjoy reading. Not sure how many others do, though

[cycloneye]

The only thing I wonder about their June forecast is about why they dont have 1998 as analog year,as the majority of the other expert forecasts have it?

They have as analogs:

1958
1966
1969
2005

[KWT]

I heard from someone on another forum that privatly they have been considering 1998 and it is a possible route this season will take...I personally think now its probably the strongest match...

I'm guessing they think La Nina won't reach moderate, if it does then 1998 becomes by far the strongest match.

[cycloneye]

I heard from someone on another forum that privatly they have been considering 1998 and it is a possible route this season will take...I personally think now its probably the strongest match...

I'm guessing they think La Nina won't reach moderate, if it does then 1998 becomes by far the strongest match.

Yes,it all depends if La Nina goes gangbusters or not.IMO,I think La Nina will be between weak to moderate during the peak of the season (ASO)

[clfenwi]

The only thing I wonder about their June forecast is about why they dont have 1998 as analog year,as the majority of the other expert forecasts have it?

They have as analogs:

1958
1966
1969
2005

I'm curious as well as that's the only analog year mentioned in the April forecast that's not included in this one. The characteristics they were looking to match up were "weak El Niño or neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April-May." Maybe it didn't match the third criteria very well? Bit of a guess as I'm reasonably sure it would be a good fit for the first two characteristics.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,you can know the landfall probability in your area when you go to this link below provided by the folks of CSU.

Go up and where you see Please select a state and thereafter select a county and that is it.

http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com/

[jinftl]

Some highlights from the landfall forecast from Dr. Gray's forecast released last week (link posted below image):

- An 80% chance of at least one ts making landfall in the oil spill area (Region 3)....a 54% chance of at least one Cat 1 or stronger making landfall in that same region...and a 29% chance of at least one Cat 3 or stronger making landfall there this year.

- Almost a 50% chance of at least one Cat 1 or stronger making landfall on the coast of Texas (Region 1) and Southeast Florida (Region 6), and the Carolinas (Region 8). The coast of Texas and SE FLorida have about a 1 in 4 shot of at least one Cat 3 making landfall this season, the Carolinas have a bit less than a 1 in 5 shot.

_ Region 1 is comprised of 503km of coastline, Region 3 has 666km of coastline, Region 6 has 483km of coastline, and Region 8 has 673 km of coastline.



The first % is the probability of a named storm making landfall in the region, the second % is the probability of one or more hurricanes making landfall in the region, and the third % is the probability of 1 or more intense (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes making landfall in the region this season:

Region 1 66.9%/48.3%/23.0%
Region 2 33.9%/18.1%/6.0%
Region 3 79.7%/54.3%/29.8%
Region 4 49.1%/25.3%/3.0%
Region 5 37.7%/15.1%/8.7%
Region 6 59.1%/47.2%/25.3%
Region 7 31.9%/15.5%/4.1%
Region 8 64.6%/49.1%/17.1%
Region 9 16.1%/6.1%/<0.1%
Region 10 27.7%/17.1%/8.4%
Region 11 10.6%/6.1%/<0.1%





http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So they have given my region(3) the highest chance of all areas to get hit by a major. I don't know, just makes one think it is all for publicity. No person or thing knows where a major may form and make landfall. That is like saying I give some portion of the midwest states a 27% chance to get hit by a ef4 or worse tornado sometime this month.

[jinftl]

The Methodology behind these %s is based on historical occurrences...which essentially lets you calculate, by county even, the percentage of seasons that saw a landfalling ts, hurricane, or major hurricane. Those actual percentages are then adjusted up or down based on the percentage the Net Tropical Cyclone Activity forecast is over or under a baseline of 100%.

The word doc in the link below details the statistical approach and basis for the percentage forecasts. The %s shown have more to do with statistics than knowledge of where landfalls will actually take place for any given storm. History is often the best predictor of the future for such things.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

So they have given my region(3) the highest chance of all areas to get hit by a major. I don't know, just makes one think it is all for publicity. No person or thing knows where a major may form and make landfall. That is like saying I give some portion of the midwest states a 27% chance to get hit by a ef4 or worse tornado sometime this month.

[Blown Away]

So they have given my region(3) the highest chance of all areas to get hit by a major. I don't know, just makes one think it is all for publicity. No person or thing knows where a major may form and make landfall. That is like saying I give some portion of the midwest states a 27% chance to get hit by a ef4 or worse tornado sometime this month.

If you use this map Region 3 has the highest chances, but Region 3 has nearly 400 miles of coast line whereas Region 6 is around 220 miles and has crossovers from Region 5. Region 8 has over 300 miles of coast line and Region 1 has about 220 miles of coast line. The odds are higher a Cat 3,4,5 will landfall in Region 3 but the chances of experiencing a Cat 3,4,5 wind will be higher anywhere in Regions 1 & 5 because the area in these Regions is smaller.

[Trader Ron]

I don't think you can focus on landfalling hurricanes all the time. Look at Wilma, it made landfall in an unpopulated area and transversed over to the East Coast. It was worse over on the E.C. than Cape Romano.