Preseason Predictions Get Us All Fired Up...

[Blown Away]

Preseason predictions get us all fired up and then a month an a half of total boredom, except for a wimpy Alex and a TD in the BOC. Just kidding of course, I'm just ready for some action! About this time I always remind myself that very few systems form in June and July, even in active seasons. Give me something other than watching the big SAL over the Atlantic!

[Cryomaniac]

It would amuse me in some ways if the season now went on to break all kinds of records for number of storms etc, by having like 8 storms in August or something ridiculous.

[cycloneye]

The expectations created by the experts with their high number predictons is causing some dissapointment for a few people that thought that from 12:01 AM on June 1 the first advisory was going to be released on a system and after that it would be one after another all the way to November Mother nature has it's own timetable and that is what rules. As BA said, even in very active seasons,there have been some lulls. The best thing this actual lull does it for the people to be preparing for the meat of the season. Let's have patience as they will eventually start to form and then it will be one after another after another ....and after the gates open,you will say,when will it stop?

[thetruesms]

And if all else fails, you can blow off some steam here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108099

[Frank2]

The expectations created by the experts with their high number predictons is causing some dissapointment for a few people that thought that from 12:01 AM on June 1 the first advisory was going to be released on a system

Isn't that truth - the reality of nature isn't Hollywood, that's for sure, but when something does come to pass in nature, the results always put to shame anything Hollywood or the media could ever create or imagine...

Most in science understand that and always respect nature (except for that well-funded tornado researcher in Twister - and look what happened to him), and they also understand that while it's their work to attempt to understand and predict what will happen, they also know that often what does happen will contradict or rewrite what they thought would happen...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but that wouldn't amuse me at all because
they would eventually have to make landfall somewhere.

It would amuse me in some ways if the season now went on to break all kinds of records for number of storms etc, by having like 8 storms in August or something ridiculous.

[bvigal]

I'm sorry but that wouldn't amuse me at all because they would eventually have to make landfall somewhere.

Amen to that!

The only way for adrenaline-junkies to keep calm during the quiet spells is to have another pasttime, or else launch your own study of past years and present us with some interesting pics, stats, comparisons, etc. Ya know, keep your fingers and your brain busy. Once the season gets going, won't be able to look up historical info. Some suggestions:

1. What's the earliest and latest "season cancel" post to appear on s2k each year, compared to each year's activity?

2. How many tropical waves each year did sk2 members begin watching east of 30W, and what were the dates, and what was the outcome?

3. How many of the storms in both Atlantic and EPac THIS YEAR actually started out as a tropical wave off Africa? (this is an important one, results might surprise you!)

4. There have been some discussions of this, but how about some data? How did reports of SAL strength in past years compare to the concurrent activity in the tropical Atlantic (to 60W), and which storms traversed the Atlantic as waves, disturbances, or low-lat storms and then bloomed into hurricanes?

Some have been saying these twaves have to get north out of ITCZ to develop, and can't because of SAL. But I remember several that stayed in low lattitudes and organized. Probably the best example would be Ivan in 2004, which became a tropical depression at 9.7N 27.6W, a hurricane at 9.5N 43.4W, and a Cat 3 at 10.6N 48.5W. What are some others?

[Brent]

Preseason predictions get us all fired up and then a month an a half of total boredom, except for a wimpy Alex and a TD in the BOC. Just kidding of course, I'm just ready for some action! About this time I always remind myself that very few systems form in June and July, even in active seasons. Give me something other than watching the big SAL over the Atlantic!

Yes, you're saying exactly what I've been thinking. My frustration level is mounting as the Atlantic continues to look deader than a doornail. Sorry, but I want something to track. We had 6 months of off season, and last year was pretty much a joke in general...

[Cryomaniac]

I'm sorry but that wouldn't amuse me at all because
they would eventually have to make landfall somewhere.

It would amuse me in some ways if the season now went on to break all kinds of records for number of storms etc, by having like 8 storms in August or something ridiculous.

Fair enough.

[Stormcenter]

Hey you can always track the stuff in the Western Pacific off of Mexico. They usually wind up to Cat. 5 or something like that and then
die after bothering no one but the fish.

Preseason predictions get us all fired up and then a month an a half of total boredom, except for a wimpy Alex and a TD in the BOC. Just kidding of course, I'm just ready for some action! About this time I always remind myself that very few systems form in June and July, even in active seasons. Give me something other than watching the big SAL over the Atlantic!

Yes, you're saying exactly what I've been thinking. My frustration level is mounting as the Atlantic continues to look deader than a doornail. Sorry, but I want something to track. We had 6 months of off season, and last year was pretty much a joke in general...

[Blown Away]

I do, there is nothing to track over there.

[wxman57]

Be thankful for how quiet the tropics have been (and typically are) in June/July. This quiet has given those who are working to cap the BP well the weather that they need to complete the project ahead of schedule. This year will very likely be a devastating season for the Caribbean Islands and the U.S. Coast, so be careful what you wish for.

The quiet won't likely last much longer, though.

[Ivanhater]

And there you heard it from Wxman57...he is not one to hype a season so I believe it. It's coming...

[thetruesms]

Be thankful for how quiet the tropics have been (and typically are) in June/July. This quiet has given those who are working to cap the BP well the weather that they need to complete the project ahead of schedule. This year will very likely be a devastating season for the Caribbean Islands and the U.S. Coast, so be careful what you wish for.

The quiet won't likely last much longer, though.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo.gif[img]

The "you are here" is a nice touch, I think it really made the post - light-hearted, yet ominous

[Ivanhater]

I would be surprised if we didn't see a storm or 2 before the month is out..

[Blown Away]

I always like that graphic Wxman57, I don't think anybody is wishing for hurricane landfalls and disruption to the Deepwater Horizons cleanup efforts. Let's be real, most of us are fascinated watching these storms churn across the Atlantic and we all know it's likely there will be hurricane chaos in the Atlantic basin soon, wishing has nothing to do with that. Hurricanes are going to be knocking soon and I'm ready for it, I am wishing no effects on any coast or cleanup efforts!

[KWT]

Whilst I'm still seeing abusy season, I'm thinking of lowering my predictions for my numbers, the whole global set-up is VERY close to 1998 which managed 14NS. I'd still expect higher then that to be honest but I'm now starting to think maybe 14-16NS maybe closer to the mark...but I'll wait till the end of July first because doing that and hold onto 16-18NS right now...either way it won't make a difference to my ACE call and I'm still expecting a very busy season when everything is taken into consideration...

Which funnily enough is what most La Ninas tend to get, esp when they get below -0.8.

Also there is a slight myth of shear being rather low now, its only a little bit below average right now, and the regions its been high in is near the Gulf and also right through the heart of the western MDR...which is exactly where it sat in 2007.

[Brent]

Be thankful for how quiet the tropics have been (and typically are) in June/July. This quiet has given those who are working to cap the BP well the weather that they need to complete the project ahead of schedule. This year will very likely be a devastating season for the Caribbean Islands and the U.S. Coast, so be careful what you wish for.

The quiet won't likely last much longer, though.

This is a great post. I think most of my frustration is made worse by the fact we had Alex and then nothing since. I know, Alex was a fluke, but it still got me in the mood which has now been killed by this lame last week or so.

[Jagno]

I'm truly sorry my weather addrenaline addicts. It's my fault. I prayed and prayed for a lull this week so that I can travel 16 hours along the coast to go see my youngest graduate college and bring him home. I'm leaving at 5am.. It's been horrible watching Florida and Louisiana for possible storms and I can't wait to just watching my own rear so to speak. At least now I'll have my whole little family together again. If we run, we run as a family unit. LOL

I know that none of you guys wish harm on anyone. This BP situtation has just brought hurricane awareness to a whole new threat level for us. Fellow Gulf Coasters don't take it personally. We all love watching the amazing and incredible developments of nature but no one here on S2K has ever had ill intent for these storms.

P.S. - I'll be home with my family Saturday morning therefore, "Let the Tropics Roll". LOL

[JTD]

Be thankful for how quiet the tropics have been (and typically are) in June/July. This quiet has given those who are working to cap the BP well the weather that they need to complete the project ahead of schedule. This year will very likely be a devastating season for the Caribbean Islands and the U.S. Coast, so be careful what you wish for.

The quiet won't likely last much longer, though.

That's a very good point. If tropical activity had been insane earlier than usual, we may not be looking at the top cap being placed tonight as we are. Look at what Alex did to the oil relief efforts. Before anyone wishes for a storm to track, just remember the oil.