ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[wyq614]

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invest_al972010.invest
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201007190904
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010071906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010071806, , BEST, 0, 167N, 567W, 20, 1016, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 586W, 20, 1016, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 601W, 20, 1015, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071900, , BEST, 0, 187N, 613W, 20, 1015, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071906, , BEST, 0, 191N, 624W, 25, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[KWT]

Looks like it will end up north of the islands at least, now the key is how far north it ends up, gets too ffar north and it'll follow the shear zone northwards.

I think this one has a decent chance down the line, nearly all the models at least bring a sharp wave past Florida...whenever you get that you need to watch for development. However odds of development before the W.Bahamas region looks unlikely IMO.

[pepeavilenho]

[KWT]

To be honest the Ca\ribbean system has more structure than this system has, but this one has been fairly presistant and there is some slight curving present.

[brunota2003]

I say greetings to 97L!

Is this the same wave the NAM (I think it was) was moving through the Florida Keys and into the Gulf, where it developed into a rather strong system a few days ago?

[KWT]

I believe that it is indeed that system Brutona. models sorta suggestive ofn a strong wave passing through, wouldn't take much for those models to sshow a weak closed system

[cycloneye]

There is some turning seen in the radar north of Puerto Rico.

[Nimbus]

The shear is currently enhancing the convection. The question is will surface pressures drop enough to sustain a circulation once the TUTT lifts out or moves north? Last model run I saw took this through the Florida straits and then up towards NOLA I think it was the dynamic GFS. BAM* suite seems further west as far as steering.

[Gustywind]

Here we are with 97L...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-67W.


$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

Plenty of moisture on the Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Its got decent curving there Gustywind but I think it is quite obvious that a lot of convection is being enhanced by the ULL.

[Gustywind]

Its got decent curving there Gustywind but I think it is quite obvious that a lot of convection is being enhanced by the ULL.

Yeah KWT it has always maintained its curvature, but that was not enough...with what you said.

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

Nice to wake up to 97L! Still disorganized, but convection is building more since last night. One observation is 97L appears to be slowing down, probably as it interacts w/ the ULL. Looks like a monster ridge will shoot 97L west.

[KWT]

Yeah upper high builds strongly, the main uncertainty with this one is both the shear and how well the ULL lifts out and also whether this system lifts out enough to ensure it doesn't go over the islands.

I think development in the Bahamas/Gulf is more than possible and that is quite a classic July developmental region as well.

[Blown Away]

Yeah upper high builds strongly, the main uncertainty with this one is both the shear and how well the ULL lifts out and also whether this system lifts out enough to ensure it doesn't go over the islands.

I think development in the Bahamas/Gulf is more than possible and that is quite a classic July developmental region as well.

I'm putting 97L near 19N/63W, do you think it's better organization or ULL interaction that is causing the convection to build around the SW??

[canes04]

Blown Away,

I'm looking in the same general area as you (19.8 and 62.5).
I think we have a developing system as we speak. Could be a TD later tonight.