Wave WSW of CV Islands

[cycloneye]

I think that this wave is a good candidate for some development down the road. Some models are hinting for development from this. The above image updates every 15 minutes.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the sal may not be a problem for this wave.

[SFLcane]

It should be another week or two before things get rolling across the atl...The wave just about to roll of the african coast pretty well organized BUT iam afraid the overall environment ahead isn't to friendly just yet.

Plenty of dry sinking air still in place across the main development region.

[StormClouds63]

All we can do is wait and observe ... a few weeks ago a mammoth wave emerged only to "poof" a day or two later. Still a little early for a CV system, though I think Allen (1980) may have formed near the end of July as a CV system.

Still looks like a lot of dry air ahead of this wave. Just a hunch, but I think the first Atlantic system will be a "fish." I'm sticking with my guess that Danielle or Fiona will be "the" storm of the 2010 season.

[Riptide]

Really? It appears that all of that dry air is transient at best. The models are projecting alot of convective development in that area with the wave in the central atlantic throughout the next 2-4 days. This should clear out the dry air for the wave exiting the African Coast.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of dry sinking air still in place across the main development region.

SFLcane, do you think the wave in front can clean the path for the new wave?

[Riptide]

[SFLcane]

Plenty of dry sinking air still in place across the main development region.

SFLcane, do you think the wave in front can clean the path for the new wave?

Its certainly posssible...But iam not on the development bandwagon as of now.

[SFLcane]

Sea surface temps are always fine across the atl this time of the year. It takes much more than warm waters for a tc to flurish if upper conditions aren't favorable nothing will get going.

[Riptide]

Sea surface temps are always fine across the atl this time of the year. It takes much more than warm waters for a tc to flurish if upper conditions aren't favorable nothing will get going.

I agree but the heat content is something to admire.

[cycloneye]

As it has been said in other threads about the MJO, this year it has not been doing it's normal track from west to east thru the globe,but meandering in octant 3 and comming back to 1-2 where the Atlantic is.It looks like is comming to the Atlantic again,in time for this new wave to feel its effects?

[hurricaneCW]

The sst's are warm enough to support at least a hurricane from the delmarva to long island, that's pretty impressive. The entire east coast should remain vigilant this season. Another thread showed that this year the tracks are pointed at the Gulf and Southeast coast.

[SFLcane]

Makes perfect sense to me cycloneye as thats were warm water and upward motion is focused this season.

If I had to lean towards something, I'd lean towards a more active Caribbean and possibly downstream in the Gulf as well. La Nina years do tend to favor more Caribbean-cruiser type storms, and the anomalously-weak shear in the Carib so far this season would seem to support this.

[Blown Away]

Is this wave the GFS develops and recurves around 60W?

[cycloneye]

Is this wave the GFS develops and recurves around 60W?

If you make a timeline for this wave, is 24-36 hours from emerging fully, the 120 hour frame of GFS that I posted at the first post makes sense that this may be it.

[CourierPR]

One of the things I find frustrating on this forum is the plethora of posts that totally rule out development in one area or another due to SAL or sinking air. Yesterday I watched a met on AccuWeather give a cogent explanation of the probable uptick in development in the next few weeks. He indicated that the SAL near Africa might slow,but not totally preclude formation in the Cape Verde region. Some posters seem to convey that the MDR is totally shut down until further notice but that is just not accurate.

[ronjon]

The CV area and MDR of the central Atlantic has really moistened up over the last few days. That large low level swirl that is near 40W really cleared out the SAL.

[cycloneye]

Todays 12z GFS (Last day in this operational form) shows a low pressure at 114 hours.

[cycloneye]

If the ECMWF does what GFS and this CMC model does,then I will believe strongly this may develop. In the meantime some entretainment as here is the 12z CMC that goes very bullish at 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ColinDelia]

Related to if the ECMWF agrees; does anyone have any references on how frequently a tc develops when there is model agreement?