This is the second forecast released by the Colorado State University folks Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray for the period between August 18-31. They busted the first forecast from August 4-17 as they say why that occured. Lets see how the next period is in terms of having plenty of ACE units.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 8_2010.pdf
CSU (Aug 18-31) Bi weekly forecasts Above Average ACE
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cycloneye
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CSU (Aug 18-31) Bi weekly forecasts Above Average ACE
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Re: CSU (Aug 18-31) Bi weekly forecasts Above Average ACE
Right now they are 0 for 1, with the first forecast (for above average activity) being a double bust. Their explanation:
As cycloneye notes, this forecast is also for above average activity. Average is 14.5 units, so the forecast is for 19 or more units. Primary factor is the activity predicted by global forecast models.
The primary reasons why we believe activity was reduced
during the two-week period were due to dry mid levels in the atmosphere and increased
vertical stability (Figures A and B). This dryness was not expected. Also, several
upper-level cold lows intruded into the tropics during the period, imparting upper-level
westerly shear and hindering storm formation.
As cycloneye notes, this forecast is also for above average activity. Average is 14.5 units, so the forecast is for 19 or more units. Primary factor is the activity predicted by global forecast models.
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One decent CV system would easily take us above average, perhaps by quite some way. Most of the models would suggest over 25 units.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
