PGI 39L - Eastern Atlantic

[ColinDelia]

Since every thunderstorm is turning into a depression right now

[abajan]

The way things have been going lately, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

EDIT (2:10 PM Barbados time) A meteorologist from Florida who gives tropical weather updates on one of our radio stations just said that PGI 39L is likely to eventually become Hermine down the road. Guess we'll just have to wait and see if that pans out.

[RL3AO]

1. YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ColinDelia]

Can we go 5 for 5? Cuz if so the one behind it is a good chance too

[ColinDelia]

Nice looking wave

[ColinDelia]

This may be another difficult one for the models. Right now, there is more model support for 40L than 39L even though 39L has much more convection. There are multiple areas of vorticity that are connected to each other.

[Aquawind]

Clearly impressive with 10% as it exits the coast..Massive and it's September 1st. This should be interesting..

[Ivanhater]

This is getting ridiculous

[abajan]

This is getting ridiculous

Yes, quite!
Let’s see now... going by the most recent trends, a 10% chance within the next 48 hours now, means a 90% chance of TS Hermine by tomorrow, eh?
Seriously, if this becomes Hermine, a record of some sort will surely be broken. Although there was at least one season when there were four systems in the Atlantic simultaneously (I’ll have to check the archives), I can’t recall any season where so many waves in succession rolled off Africa and developed.

[Ladylight]

Don't know how accurate this is, but my husband was talking to one of his customers today, a retired pro met. He said there has never been a time on record of 4 named cape verde storms before simultaneously. So if Hermine gets named, he said the record is broken. Maybe someone can check veracity of that?

[senorpepr]

Don't know how accurate this is, but my husband was talking to one of his customers today, a retired pro met. He said there has never been a time on record of 4 named cape verde storms before simultaneously. So if Hermine gets named, he said the record is broken. Maybe someone can check veracity of that?

He would be correct.

Four named storms (regardless of origin) has occurred only three times before.

1893: Hurricanes 3, 4, 5, and 6. 3 formed near the Leeward Islands and 5 formed near Bermuda. 4 and 6 were Cape Verde systems.

1971: Hurricanes Edith, Fern, Ginger, and Tropical Storm Heidi. Edith formed in the Caribbean, Fern formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and Ginger and Heidi formed in the W Atlantic, just E of Florida/Bahamas.

1998: Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. This is the closest... Georges, Ivan, and Jeanne were Cape Verde systems, but Karl developed off the E Coast.

[bob rulz]

Well, Hermine would have to form within the next 48 hours for this to happen seeing as Earl could be turning extratropical around that time!

[senorpepr]

Don't know how accurate this is, but my husband was talking to one of his customers today, a retired pro met. He said there has never been a time on record of 4 named cape verde storms before simultaneously. So if Hermine gets named, he said the record is broken. Maybe someone can check veracity of that?

He would be correct.

Four named storms (regardless of origin) has occurred only three times before.

1893: Hurricanes 3, 4, 5, and 6. 3 formed near the Leeward Islands and 5 formed near Bermuda. 4 and 6 were Cape Verde systems.

1971: Hurricanes Edith, Fern, Ginger, and Tropical Storm Heidi. Edith formed in the Caribbean, Fern formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and Ginger and Heidi formed in the W Atlantic, just E of Florida/Bahamas.

1998: Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. This is the closest... Georges, Ivan, and Jeanne were Cape Verde systems, but Karl developed off the E Coast.

Wait... officials are conducting a review of the play...

The list I had (that quoted Chris Landsea, FWIW) failed to list 1995.

1995: Hurricanes Humberto, Iris, Luis, and Tropical Storm Karen. Humberto, Karen, and Luis were Cape Verde systems. As for Iris... it was a CV wave, but it did not develop into a tropical depression until 49.3W and into a tropical storm until 50.6W.

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...ARE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[AJC3]

There's already a very well-defined low cloud center near 10.5N 16.5W. There also appears to be strong upper level easterlies over the wave right now.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE...ARE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ladylight]

How come this isn't an official invest yet?