Max Mayfield Comments

[Frank2]

Last evening Max Mayfield (former NHC Director) mentioned something about Hurricane Earl that really caught my ear (ouch)...

He said that if Monday's set of circumstances had occured 20 years ago (1990), the NHC would have been very concerned that the strong ridge to the north would drive Earl towards Florida...

That comment was of interest to me because it was the very concern I had on Monday (looking at the WV loop), and was the reason for my concern and posts at that time...

From what Max said, it's the advances in hurricane models that were able to tell them that the ridge would move quickly to the east and allow Earl to continue to move towards the northwest...

I guess it shows how we older (middle age) folks view weather, since we remember a time when the models were either not available or were not as sophisticated as they are today, and because of that we still think of when a hurricane's future path was more of an unknown than it is now - though that does not mean today's forecasters are sure of everything, since intensity forecasting is still largely an unknown factor in meteorology...

Still, it made me realize that my concerns (fears) on Monday were not due to any shortcomings of my own, but were a reflection of my being around during the long evolution of technology (for good or bad), from my first encounter with Hurricane Donna in 1960 to Hurricane Earl, half a century later (ouch), and as someone who worked for meteorologists for a number of years, I'm sure there are many others who also have to remind themselves sometimes of the many new tools available during hurricane season...

Thanks, Max!

Frank

[somethingfunny]

Brilliant! I knew we'd come a long way but didn't realize we'd come that far, Frank....

Wouldn't it be nice if the national media would run a story about the huge advances in hurricane track forecasts, rather than only talking about the relatively minor track errors that still occur.

[supercane]

Looked this up once you mentioned it from another thread. Very interesting comments. BTW, appreciate your comments in the storm thread. They're short, well reasoned and often act as a counterweight to the "storm bombing out" and "storm moving more west" comments we often hear, as well as act as a reminder to pay attention to the synoptic situation indeed of focusing only on the lines (models).

[Sihara]

Last evening Max Mayfield (former NHC Director) mentioned something about Hurricane Earl that really caught my ear (ouch)...

He said that if Monday's set of circumstances had occured 20 years ago (1990), the NHC would have been very concerned that the strong ridge to the north would drive Earl towards Florida...

That comment was of interest to me because it was the very concern I had on Monday (looking at the WV loop), and was the reason for my concern and posts at that time...

From what Max said, it's the advances in hurricane models that were able to tell them that the ridge would move quickly to the east and allow Earl to continue to move towards the northwest...

I guess it shows how we older (middle age) folks view weather, since we remember a time when the models were either not available or were not as sophisticated as they are today, and because of that we still think of when a hurricane's future path was more of an unknown than it is now - though that does not mean today's forecasters are sure of everything, since intensity forecasting is still largely an unknown factor in meteorology...

Still, it made me realize that my concerns (fears) on Monday were not due to any shortcomings of my own, but were a reflection of my being around during the long evolution of technology (for good or bad), from my first encounter with Hurricane Donna in 1960 to Hurricane Earl, half a century later (ouch), and as someone who worked for meteorologists for a number of years, I'm sure there are many others who also have to remind themselves sometimes of the many new tools available during hurricane season...

Thanks, Max!

Frank

Very interesting - I'm glad you posted this, since I missed his comment. Although I'm completely ignorant, I have been here in "hurricane alley" for decades and recall the forecasts, and outcomes, of the past. When everyone seemed so sure of the track of Earl, I kept wondering how they could be so certain of the ridge, and was a good deal alarmed. But I didn't post anything about it, since I didn't feel my thoughts would be welcome.

I'm glad to know our doubts about the projected track come more from our age group, and the experiences we've had back in times when technology had not reached the level it has today.

[Category 5]

I think this just about sums it up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxAGGyrvJ9c&ob=av2n