Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

ColinDelia, I made this thread because it appears what the models are developing is not PGI45L, but another area ahead of that one, so to avoid confusion,here is the new thread for the area ahead of PGI45L located SW of the CV Islands.

[CrazyC83]

I see it too, around 11N 19W. It appears to be the only wave outside the ITCZ right now. Since everything seems to be developing, it bears watching...

[cycloneye]

A new pouch is made for this area,although no new number yet.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI89T.html

[Aquawind]

Nice catch on the new pouch assigned Luis..

[cycloneye]

GFS precipitation field.

[cycloneye]

GFS Vorticity loop

[ColinDelia]

ColinDelia, I made this thread because it appears what the models are developing is not PGI45L, but another area ahead of that one, so to avoid confusion,here is the new thread for the area ahead of PGI45L located SW of the CV Islands.

Sounds good. maybe there are some posts over there to move over here so we can keep the two conversations separate?

[cycloneye]

ColinDelia, I made this thread because it appears what the models are developing is not PGI45L, but another area ahead of that one, so to avoid confusion,here is the new thread for the area ahead of PGI45L located SW of the CV Islands.

Sounds good. maybe there are some posts over there to move over here so we can keep the two conversations separate?

Well, let's leave those at your thread, but now that there are separated threads,the confusion goes away as each thread identifies each area. You can fix the title of your thread to take out the (GFS takes PGI45L to Caribbean/gulf) part.

[CrazyC83]

The way things are going, I would love to see this become 94L then become Lisa all in a day...this season seems to be Go Big or Go Home...

[alan1961]

This the area?

[Blown Away]

So is this the same area that is shown in some of the GFS runs that brings a storm into the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

So is this the same area that is shown in some of the GFS runs that brings a storm into the Caribbean?

This is it.

[Stratosphere747]

Let me add some clarity to what I posted in the PGI45L thread -

From the PREDICT extended outlook yesterday -

Possible central Atlantic development: Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the possibility for development of a disturbance west
of PGI45L over the central North Atlantic in the 3- to 4-day
range. The GFS deterministic forecast scenario indicates a
“pinching off” of low-level vorticity on the western side of
the broad low-level circulation association with PGI45L by ~0000
UTC 18 Sep (image 19). The longer-range GFS deterministic
forecast (not shown) shows the pinched-off disturbance tracking
briskly westward, reaching 40W by ~1200 UTC 18 Sep and
strengthening thereafter. While the ECMWF deterministic
forecast does not show this type of development, it does
indicate formation of a separate weak low-level disturbance
characterized by a gradual increase in cyclonic vorticity near
45W between ~0000 UTC 16 Sep and 0000 UTC 18 Sep (image 14 and
image 19). Several members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast
system (image 17) also forecast development of a disturbance
over the central Atlantic west of PGI45L.

[ROCK]

is this the same thread that was the GFS long range? what happen to that one?

[cycloneye]

is this the same thread that was the GFS long range? what happen to that one?

This is a new one that GFS and other models develop ahead of PGI45L.The other thread is for the area still inside africa to avoid confusion.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS running....

[boca]

On the satelite it looks like this area is going to have a hard time sustaining itself due to the flow between Igor and Julia.Looks to be moving WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view. Area south of CV islands looks more prominent right now.

[boca]

I was actually looking at the wrong area again.I was looking at the area south between Julia and Igor not the area south of Julia oops.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS H+90 Here we go



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif