Seasonal Outlook 2010-11 for Australian Region

[AussieMark]

Seasonal Outlook 2010-11 for Queensland and the Coral Sea Region

Summary: La Nina boosts the odds of Queensland having an active cyclone season.

Queensland may experience above average tropical cyclone activity this coming season, with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea. It is also likely to be wetter than normal in most parts.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this is because we're now in a La Nina climate phase, which he expects will remain the dominating influence through the Spring and Summer months.

La Nina events are usually associated with above normal rainfall across much of Queensland and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Mr Davidson said "What this translates to is where historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher, but the number of cyclones actually making landfall can be quite variable from season to season."

"However, under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." he said.

Mr Davidson urged Queenslanders to "prepare early not only for cyclones but also for floods as we have already experienced record September rainfalls across the state."

"Preparation is the key to safety, and we encourage communities to factor in the possibility of a destructive cyclone or major flood into their pre-season planning." said Mr Davidson.

The annual pre-season public awareness campaign gets underway in Mackay late in the week, with workshops to be held in a number of provincial centres during October. It will be conducted in partnership with the Queensland Departments of Community Safety and Environment and Resource Management and ABC Local Radio Queensland.

In addition to the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au, the latest information on Tropical Cyclones is readily available by dialling 1300 659 212, and on Flood Warnings by dialling 1300 659 219 (both for the cost of a local call but higher on mobiles).

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[Reesie]

The rest of BOMs predictions come out on Monday but according to a interview given by one of TCWC Darwin's senior forecasters 17-22 Cyclones are expected throughout the Aus region this year. (90-160E).

http://www.mysailing.com.au/news/bom-wa ... n-27-years

[AussieMark]

its going to be very active

Its very alarming that QLD region is expecting 6 cyclones tho considering over the last decade the highest in a season was 4.... which was the season we had Monica and Larry

[AussieMark]

2010/11 Australian Tropical Cyclone season outlook

Summary: Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the Australian region

The outlook suggests that the coming tropical cyclone season is likely to have
* a higher than average number of tropical cyclones over the full Australian region,
* a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Western region,
* an average to above average number of tropical cyclones in the Northern region,
* a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region.



Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones

For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average. The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12.

Australian region: 20-22 cyclones (seasonal average is 12) - Chance of more TCs than average: 98%
Western region: 11-12 cyclones (seasonal average is 7) - Chance of more TCs than average: 93%
Northern region: 5 cyclones (seasonal average is 4) - Chance of more TCs than average: 67%
Eastern region: 6-7 cyclones (seasonal average is 4) - Chance of more TCs than average: 87%
Northwest WA: 7-8 cyclones (seasonal average is 6) - Chance of more TCs than average: 75%

Regional features

* The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).

* For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.

* The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).

* The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.

This outlook covers the period from July 2010 to June 2011. Most tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere occur from November until April.

Production of the Outlook

This outlook is produced based on statistical relationships between tropical cyclone numbers and two indicators: the Southern Oscillation Index2 (SOI) and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly3. These two indicators provide a measure of the strength of the atmospheric and oceanic state, respectively, of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The mid-October assessment of ENSO conditions by the Bureau of Meteorology4 states that the La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is a moderate to strong event, and that La Niña conditions are likely to continue until at least early 2011. Surface conditions are also warmer than average in the Coral Sea, off Australia's northern coasts and in the far western Tropical Pacific. The current La Niña is highlighted by the SOI, which has been showing very high positive values since August. The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology predict that La Niña conditions are likely to persist into at least the first quarter of 2011, as also indicated by the Bureau's climate model.





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[AussieMark]

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Northwest Australia

Bureau of Meteorology Warns of Early Cyclone Risk

People in Western Australia's northwest are being urged to prepare for the coming cyclone season. "This season there is a higher-than-normal risk of a pre-Christmas cyclone and with the cyclone season rapidly approaching it is important that residents start preparations immediately" explained Brad Santos, meteorologist in the WA Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre.

In terms of cyclone numbers, the last cyclone season was quiet. There were three cyclones in waters off Northwest Australia with two severe impacts: Laurence (Category 5) and Magda (Category 3). "We are likely to have more cyclones this season than last, and we have a much greater chance of a pre-Christmas cyclone" warned Mr Santos. "Sea surface temperatures off the northwest coast are warmer than usual and climate modelling suggests that the current La Niña event will persist into the cyclone season. This increases the chance of an early season cyclone and also boosts the number of cyclones we are likely to see over the whole season" he explained. The average number of cyclones is five; this year we expect about six or seven cyclones.

Mr Santos added that "It is likely that during the season there will be two coastal impacts with one of them being severe". Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia. "At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. Everyone in the North West needs to be prepared from the start of the season on 1 November", cautioned Mr Santos. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

Details of the 2010/2011 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Northwest Australia:

* Higher than normal risk of a coastal impact before Christmas.
* About 6 or 7 cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is 5).
* Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.
* Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

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[AussieMark]

2010/2011 Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

"Top End Residents Urged to Prepare Early for the Cyclone Season"

The Northern Territory region is likely to experience earlier and above average tropical cyclone activity during the 2010-11 season.

La Nina remains well-established in the Pacific region and is expected to persist into at least early 2011. Sea surface temperatures are above normal in waters around northern Australia. This situation provides favourable conditions for tropical cyclone development in Northern Territory waters early in the 2010-11 season.

During La Nina years in the Top End, there tends to be an earlier start to build-up conditions and higher rainfall during the early part of the wet season from October to December. The monsoon onset and the first cyclone of the season are also more likely earlier than usual, in early to mid-December, rather than after Christmas.

It is likely that there will be more cyclones than normal around the Northern Territory in the 2010-11 season. The average number is between 2 and 3. The most cyclones observed in the NT region during recent seasons is five. Cyclone activity is often concentrated in the Arafura and Timor Seas, rather than in the Gulf of Carpentaria, during La Nina years.

This means that residents in Darwin and other coastal communities around the NT should prepare early for an active cyclone season.

"It's not just residents on the coast who need to be cleaning up", said the Supervising Meteorologist in the NT, Mr Gordon Jackson. "Tropical cyclones can cause damage well inland. The people of Oenpelli and Jabiru will remember that Severe TC 'Monica' still packed a punch when it got to them, and of course in Western Australia they had damage and deaths from 'George' as far as 100km south of Port Hedland in 2007."

The potential early start to the season is also concerning the Bureau. "Even though December is a more likely time, we can't rule late November out", said Mr. Jackson. "We're just in the middle of the first active phase of the Wet now, and the next peak phase might be starting by mid-November. That's not that far off and from then onwards we think things will be pretty busy right across northern Australia. The other thing is that the chance of an early cyclone also means higher chances of flooding inland early in the season, because a cyclone decaying inland can dump loads of rain."

People in coastal and island areas should clean up around their premises, prepare their emergency kit and consider what they will do when a cyclone watch or warning is declared. It is essential that people in areas affected by cyclones plan ahead and decide whether they will evacuate to a safer area, and what their options are to shelter from dangerous weather conditions.

The latest information on tropical cyclones is available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/ and on the recorded telephone service 1300 659 211 for the cost of a local call (higher cost on mobile telephones).

The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

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[Reesie]

NIWAs who represent all of the pacific islands and New Zealand when it comes to climate have also gone OTT.

http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publicat ... ok-oct2010