Pouch PGI65L ESE of Windward Islands - (Is invest 91L)

[dixiebreeze]

Is something else happening right behind Richard? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[cycloneye]

Some models are showing something in the Caribbean by next weekend.Here is the 12z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Luis. It sure looks like something is stirring east of Richard.

[Aquawind]

No mention in the TWD or pouche. As we can see the Western Caribbean is about the only place even remotely favorable for development.



12Z GFS loop shows some possibilties.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is on board with a Caribbean development.

[dixiebreeze]

Maybe a new invest late Monday or Tuesday?

[chrisjslucia]

I think this is the wave to the south of 90L, at around 25W on the ITCZ. Crown Weather was talking about this on Saturday as heading for the Windwards and today raises it again, suggesting a heading taking it through Trinidad and into the Caribbean. A season's farewell from Africa?

[CourierPR]

I think this is the wave to the south of 90L, at around 25W on the ITCZ. Crown Weather was talking about this on Saturday as heading for the Windwards and today raises it again, suggesting a heading taking it through Trinidad and into the Caribbean. A season's farewell from Africa?

I can't remember the last time an African system came across and developed this late in the season. Bastardi did say months ago that we could see tropical activity into December.

[FireRat]

With this type of season we're in, November might be like an extension of October with a few more storms before the real end of the season comes around mid-December. That's what I get from Mr. Bastardi.

[cycloneye]

After it brushes the north coast of South America,12z GFS starts to develop in the Central Caribbean.Image is uploaded with imageshack.

[cycloneye]

This area is now pouch PGI65L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI65L.html

[abajan]

Judging from recent water vapor loops, PG165L seems to be running headlong into some serious shear down the road.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO


A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 91L so thread is locked. Go to Active Storms Forum to continue the discussions about this wave.