Upcoming week - November 15-21

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Last week is a pretty easy week to evaluate, given that there were no active storms coming in, and I predicted no developments during the week. OK, Invests 93L and 94L did threaten to develop, but 93L completely fizzled out, while 94L is still hanging around…but hasn’t developed yet. Suffice it to say, since nothing developed, and I accurately predicted as such, my grade is an A for last week.

Two good weeks in a row now! Let’s make it three, shall we?

Current situation and models

Invest 94L is the only real game in town coming into a new week. Models generally agree on a slow-to-moderate westward track into Central America, but there are disagreements in terms of development. Some do not develop it at all, and some make it a moderate tropical storm at the strongest. Still, this season, a lot of systems have strengthened more than any model previously predicted, and intensity forecasts are the most difficult to nail down. Therefore, my prediction for this area will probably not have the highest degree of confidence in the world.

The GFS does like something to develop just east of the Caribbean down the road, but that appears to be well beyond this upcoming week. Otherwise, nothing else appears to be looming on the horizon this upcoming week, when looking at models

Recent history

Since 1995, only two storms have developed during this upcoming week: Marco in 1996 and Gamma in 2005. Both took place in none other than the Caribbean Sea. In addition to these two, there was one other storm still active coming in: Lenny in 1999. It also was in the Caribbean, though moving the wrong way across as we all know. That said, Marco was doing the same kind of track for a while, while Gamma moved westward.

The last storm in an area other than the Caribbean during this upcoming week was Gordon in 1994.

So what does this all tell us?

If Invest 94L is going to develop, it’s certainly in the right area to do so this upcoming week. The Caribbean is the only area that really seems to threaten anything to develop in recent years. That said, only three storms have done it since 1995. That averages to one every five years taking place, so the odds are still fairly slim. Then again, the last one to develop was…five years ago.

Back to looking ahead

It looks like it’s all going to hinge on how I handle Invest 94L. After reviewing what the NHC and some pro mets on Storm2k think, development does not appear to be very likely. Climatology suggests it’s in the right area to do so, but even then the odds aren’t too great. Finally, if Invest 94L does develop, I would tend to predict a track into Central America by Tuesday night as no more than a 50-60 mph tropical storm. My actual prediction, though: I predict no development for Invest 94L, but there will still be a rain threat to Central America with this disturbance. Confidence is 65%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone development. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[jinftl]

Good analysis as always...but you do realize that predicting 2 weeks of no activity in november is not the most daring or difficult feats to pull off....i think most of this board got the same grade of A last week!!!

Evaluating last week
Suffice it to say, since nothing developed, and I accurately predicted as such, my grade is an A for last week.

Two good weeks in a row now! Let’s make it three, shall we?

[Andrew92]

Yeah you're probably right. Still, I'll take whatever I can get after that rough October!

At least I got a couple of scares last week though, but neither panned out fortunately.

(Then again, it is worth noting my forecasts for Danielle, Earl, Igor, and Tomas were very good earlier in the year. Emphasis is especially placed on Igor there)

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

With nothing imminent today/tonight, time to evaluate!

Only Invest 94L generated any kind of interest this past week, and I called for no development. My confidence was 65%, and in hindsight I probably should have heightened it. That said, it was in a favorable area for development in November, models were slow to disintegrate it, and 2010 has been very unpredictable as we all know. Still, I was correct in not picking development there or elsewhere, so my grade is an A for this past week.

Final 2010 prediction is coming up in just a little bit.

-Andrew92