http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php? ... ge__st__40
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Madden-Julian Oscillation event on the cards
Since the strong MJO event of early October, the signal has been mostly weak and its movement erratic. However, guidance surveyed by the Bureau suggests that this inactive MJO phase is about to end.
The majority of computer models surveyed are now hinting at the redevelopment of an MJO over the eastern Indian Ocean over the coming 2 weeks. If the scenario pans out, this will have far reaching implications on Australia's weather during December.
Given this development scenario, it is likely that the potential for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Indian Ocean will increase significantly towards the second week of December, with the moderate-to-high risk extending eastwards during subsequent weeks. With eastward propagation of the MJO, northern Australia could experience enhanced rainfall during the second and third weeks of December.
If an active MJO was to enter Australian longitudes around the middle of December, as predicted by the majority of computer models, the probability of Australian Monsoon onset prior to Christmas in Darwin would be moderate to high.
