The models see CV wave as a big fish spinner

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082613

The tropical models and the globals are in agreement about this system not being a threat to the islands but going fishing.Good news for us who live in the caribbean but down the road the east coast will be threatened or it never makes it to the longitud 60w?

[Guest]

Fish Storm - Out to Sea never to affect the CONUS.

[alicia-w]

not all of them see this a fish storm.........

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

[Stephanie]

I like that model alicia!

Ticka - you're sounding more and more like a hurricane expert everyday!

[ameriwx2003]

Here is some longer range Gem Output links for what it is worth:):)

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/glb00_168_e.html

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/glb00_192_e.html

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/glb00_216_e.html

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/glb00_240_e.html

[chadtm80]

Most do say fishing, but lets remember how often and how extreme the models change.. They could have it a GOM storm by tommorow

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't write off a system that hasn't developed yet. Think things will change by the time this makes the trek across the Atlantic. These long range models have a way of changing from that far out, and so does the pattern. In the past most models that show fish change over time. This will be a long tracker....and the hurricane center is quite interested in this one. Second the Wave in the Caribbean is our best candidate in the short term for development. watch the area between Puerto Rico and the DR as it heads WNW. Shear seems to be lifting out, and by Thursday/Friday I expect conditions to improve for development as it moves into the central Bahamas. NOGAPS keeps it east of the SE US, but not by much. GFS loses it, but I believe will pick up on it again by tomorrow. T. Terry (used to have his own web site) in Orlando seems very concerned about this one. High pressure should build in from the Tennessee valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast later this week. How quickly this pulls out to the NE will determine the direction of this system. That's gonna be very close to home by the weekend. Cheers!!

[chadtm80]

Agree 100% Steve.. How many times have we seen a "fish storm" go west, and not fishing?? Plenty

[cycloneye]

Yes Steve I also agree 100% but I made this thread with the title of a big spinner to provoke great discussions like this here.

[Stormchaser16]

I dunno....... Theres been plenty of times where I have seen the models send a storm fishing only to have it stay on a more westward track. Like the forecast for what was TD9, forecast to move over SE Florida, but there was a predominant Easterly flow in the Caribbean which moved it south of there. For one, many people I have talked to are seeing a Donna track(the analog of 1960 lives on folks).... There are a few models in support of this, the one that most catches my attention would be the EC. Also the GGEM is also bringing a massive 977 low heading towards the East Coast. Many are honking about a possible Major Flooding potential on the East Coast, and current data is in support of this. One of the things that is VERY important to note is a persistant SW flow along the Eastern Seaboard, along with a STALLED trough axis. This is big because by day 7 with this stalled axis, the models are bringing in what would be hurricane Fabio to the East coast. IF the trough stays on land then the system would push on shore, with an already damp soil in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast along this frontal boundary. Right now it appears as if the frontal boundary/trough axis does NOT push offshore. With the system not even developed yet, it's anybodies guess as to where this system goes and what this all means. But keep in mind with the Analog of 1960 already holding strong.....(Ignacio became just another piece of evidence)... we COULD be heading for a DONNA scenario.

[Stormchaser16]

I know its not one of the best models to use...... however it perfectly shows what I am talking about....

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

You see the developed system moving WNW across the Atlantic, notice towards the end of the animation, the 500 MB trough dipping in from the Northern Plains......... Now the GFS has a tendency to overdoe patterns like this..... however, the EC is in agreement with that, and I will soon try to post the EC data.

[Stormchaser16]

And.........

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

[Stormchaser16]

Sorry for not having these all in one post.....

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

[Colin]

Well, all I can say is that, "We Don't Need the Rain." We've been getting persistent showers/thunderstorms most of this summer...and the last thing we need right now is the remnants of a Hurricane to hit us.

I'll keep my eyes peeled on this one for sure! :o

[Stormchaser16]

That's about all we can do at this point, we have to see how the trough plays into the Eastern U.S and of course i'll have to wait to see further development in that wave out there before i really start to get concerned. Now if that begins to move WNW like the models are showing, then we really should watch out.

[Guest]

As I say with any system - there are numerous variables that have to come into play when looking at systems this far out. How strong will the get - what are conditions in front (aka SAL, dry air, shear)- where will the Bermuda High be.....Will it be a faster mover like its siblings earlier this year?

Only time will tell on these factors. Until then enjoying watching this one develop! Finally!

[Stormchaser16]

The pain in all of this is that even if we don't see this hurricane head towards the East coast, that we still have to deal with this persistant trough/frontal boundary, ensemble data and regular models indicate that yea we're going to be in for some quite heavy rains come the early parts of September.