South Caribbean

[dixiebreeze]

Seems to be some persistence in the South Caribbean this evening. Any thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

[floridasun78]

that look like be over land soon central america

[Sanibel]

A little thin but could be something there if it isn't just shear-induced convection.

[piggy]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1204 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 17/00 UTC. OVER MEXICO...DOMINANT FEATURE IS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 110W-93W TO THE
SOUTHWEST USA. AT 250 HPA A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 23N 100W IS TO ANCHOR
THIS AXIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT 500 HPA THE HIGH
MEANDERS FARTHER NORTH...OVER CHIHUAHUA/SONORA IN NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THROUGH 72-84 HRS...RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST USA IS TO
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE AS STRONG PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
LIFT OVER THIS AXIS. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR A STRONG SUBSIDENT
CAP OVER MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N...INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A TUTT IS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN/GUATEMALA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE
IT IS TO MEANDER THROUGH 48-54 HRS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENS...THE TUTT WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA-WESTERN CUBA.
MEANWHILE...AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE GULF/YUCATAN...IT IS
TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY
THROUGH 72 HRS. ACROSS BELIZE-GUATEMALA-NORTHWEST HONDURAS EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH
36 HRS.[b] A SURGE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON DAY 02-03 AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH MAXIMA TO INCREASE TO
35-70MM/DAY. LATER IN THE CYCLE...AS THE TROUGH PULLS ACROSS
CUBA...IT WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THIS IS TO ALSO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS. [/b]
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO-YUCATAN PENINSULAFAVORS THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE HAS A
STRONG PRESENCE AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH AXIS
BUILDING WEST ALONG 20N TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
STARTING TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN/EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWING A RAPID DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A CLOSED HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA TO
ANCHOR THIS AXIS. THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF 20N AS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/ NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. MEANWHILE...A STRONG CAP IS TO ESTABLISH AT 650/700
HPA...TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT LOW LEVELS...OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS AREA FOR
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND WILL ISSUE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHEN REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...THIS IS ANCHORING THE
ITCZ NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS
COSTA RICA/ SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR
TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
ACROSS COSTA RICA-SOUTHERN NICARAGUA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
BY 36-72 HRS...AS TROPICAL WAVES INTERACT WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...THIS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-100MM/DAY. THIS IS TO AFFECT EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BY 48 HRS...AND SOUTHERN CHIAPAS BY 72-84 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ IS TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE GUIANAS INTO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA JUST NORTH OF 10N. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 72-84 HRS. OVER NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE ACROSS THE ABC ISLES EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/ NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT IS TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. OVER AMAZONIA IN
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON THE ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN PLAINS EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84
47W 52W 56W 59W 63W 67W 70W TW
78W 80W 84W 87W 89W 91W 94W TW
83W 85W 87W 90W 92W 96W 98W TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W AND SOUTH OF 15N IS TO REACH FRENCH
GUIANA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH DAY 48 HRS IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS
SURINAME TO GUYANA. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED
TO THE NORTH OF 05N AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ...TO FAVOR
A SURGE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA-ORINOCO DELTA REGION IN
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER ON DAY 02...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM/DAY...WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO-USVI IT IS TO FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W AND SOUTH OF 19N LEADS A
WIND SURGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 HPA
WINDS OF 20-30KT TO PERSIST FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE...THE WAVE IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH IS
TO BUILD ALONG THE ITCZ. OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA-NORTHEAST HONDURAS
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY AT
24-48 HRS. AS IT NEARS BELIZE/YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE TROUGH IS TO
INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TO FAVOR A
SURGE IN ACTIVITY...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-GUATEMALA...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF
20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM/DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W AND SOUTH OF 16N IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA-EL SALVADOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS ON DAY 02. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IT
IS TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.

ALEXANDER...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NEELY...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)

Q3


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Last Updated: 1204 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011