Central Atlantic Wave

[Steve H.]

May have something brewing in the West Central Atlantic this morning. Nice burst of convection that has been growing....let's see if it can sustain.

[Florida1118]

Is it the one in the ITCZ your talking about?

[Weatherboy1]

That looks like a reasonable one to keep an eye on. That wave looks to have some rotation and healthy convection, it's in an area of low shear, and the water temps are certainly warm enough to get something going. Would need to gain some latitude, but better than nothing!

[SouthFloridawx]

Wind Shear is relatively light or decreasing in the area.



Low level convergence.

[drezee]

I am much more interested inthis wave than the SW caribbean system. This has the leading tail, upper level divergence, and low level convergence. It looks like a winner. It needs to travel slow...

[South Texas Storms]

Does this have any model support?

[vbhoutex]

This one certainly has my interest even though I guess I should worry about something in the SW Carib first. However, if it gains enough latitude to make it into the Caribbean, it will have to get through the "zone of death" that always seems to be in the Central Caribbean to develop. Definitely worth watching for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

If you zoom in on this area and run a 20 image loop, you can see a broad circulation. It might be mid level, but you can see a turning inside the inverted V. Maybe I'm wrong, what do you guys think?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

[SouthFloridawx]

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be suprised if at 8pm this gets a lemon 10% of development

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 13N43W TO 5N46W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

[SouthFloridawx]

8am

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED ALONG
13N44W TO 6N47W BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND
IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

[ROCK]

this one does look good and think it will be a player...low lat runner also....

NOGAPS 06 sees it...