My thoughts on models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Rainband
My thoughts on models
Long range model forecasts are iffy at best. The only accuracy, save Bill, this year has been with models forecasting developed systems and their movement..even then..theres been some problems..ie TD9. My point is ..I don't hold much confidence in the models..till there is something out there for them to initialize on
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wx247
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Models should be used as guidance... not as a life saving tool, especially in very long ranges.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Guest
Well Rainband - I models are here to stay and have become a dominate force in weather forecast more and more days out from the event. Are they reliable - well as everchanging as the weather is - who knows. But you can't ignore the fact that 90% of the weather community use and follow them.
Just my .25 cents worth.
Just my .25 cents worth.
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Rainband
I know Ticka..what I am trying to say is a model forecasts better..when there is a "low" pressure to intializeticka1 wrote:Well Rainband - I models are here to stay and have become a dominate force in weather forecast more and more days out from the event. Are they reliable - well as everchanging as the weather is - who knows. But you can't ignore the fact that 90% of the weather community use and follow them.
Just my .25 cents worth.
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GalvestonDuck
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Found this on http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
DUE TO NCEP COMPUTER ISSUES... THE 00Z AND 06Z
GFS WERE NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ONLY MODEL GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE TO MEDR RNG FCSTERS THIS MORNING WAS
THE 00Z CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH THE
12Z/26 ECMWF. ECMWF MEAN WAS NOT AVAILABLE DUE
TO INTERNET ISSUES WITHIN THE WWB. AS A RESULT...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO YESTERDAYS SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURES/POPS AND TEMPS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF AK... A RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO WRN CANADA AND CLOSED LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LWR 48. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENTIRE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC AND SLIDE INTO WRN
CANADA DURING THE PERIOD. THE WRN US SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE WILL JUST CLIP
THE NRN PAC NW. OTHERWISE... THE WRN US WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE US DURING THE
FCST PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE GRT LAKES/NORTHEAST DURING DAY 3/4
TIME PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY STALL OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SRN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITHIN THE TROPICS AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS FL. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE
THE CANADIAN... WITH THE MORE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST... CARRIES THE SYSTEM INTO THE SERN
COAST BY DAY 4. THE NOGAPS CARRIES THE ERLY WAVE
ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ERN GULF BY THE END OF
DAY 5. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A SYSTEM IN THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO... AS BOTH MOVE AN AREA OF
VORTICITY OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
WRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO TX BY DAY 4
THROUGH 6.
DUE TO NCEP COMPUTER ISSUES... THE 00Z AND 06Z
GFS WERE NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ONLY MODEL GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE TO MEDR RNG FCSTERS THIS MORNING WAS
THE 00Z CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH THE
12Z/26 ECMWF. ECMWF MEAN WAS NOT AVAILABLE DUE
TO INTERNET ISSUES WITHIN THE WWB. AS A RESULT...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO YESTERDAYS SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURES/POPS AND TEMPS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF AK... A RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO WRN CANADA AND CLOSED LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LWR 48. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENTIRE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC AND SLIDE INTO WRN
CANADA DURING THE PERIOD. THE WRN US SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SHORT WAVE WILL JUST CLIP
THE NRN PAC NW. OTHERWISE... THE WRN US WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE US DURING THE
FCST PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE GRT LAKES/NORTHEAST DURING DAY 3/4
TIME PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY STALL OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SRN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITHIN THE TROPICS AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS FL. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE
THE CANADIAN... WITH THE MORE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST... CARRIES THE SYSTEM INTO THE SERN
COAST BY DAY 4. THE NOGAPS CARRIES THE ERLY WAVE
ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ERN GULF BY THE END OF
DAY 5. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A SYSTEM IN THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO... AS BOTH MOVE AN AREA OF
VORTICITY OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
WRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO TX BY DAY 4
THROUGH 6.
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Rainband
