ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:07 pm

Code: Select all

024
WHXX01 KWBC 170004
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0004 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  0000   110917  1200   110918  0000   110918  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.7N  21.0W   11.2N  22.8W   11.5N  25.0W   11.9N  27.7W
BAMD    10.7N  21.0W   11.0N  22.8W   11.2N  24.8W   11.3N  26.7W
BAMM    10.7N  21.0W   11.2N  22.7W   11.6N  24.7W   11.7N  27.0W
LBAR    10.7N  21.0W   11.5N  23.8W   12.5N  26.9W   13.4N  30.0W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  0000   110920  0000   110921  0000   110922  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  31.1W   15.3N  39.2W   18.3N  47.0W   21.0N  52.8W
BAMD    11.7N  28.7W   14.2N  33.2W   17.1N  38.1W   18.9N  41.6W
BAMM    12.2N  29.8W   14.2N  36.2W   15.7N  43.1W   15.6N  50.0W
LBAR    14.6N  32.9W   18.3N  37.8W   23.8N  38.8W   29.4N  38.2W
SHIP        45KTS          45KTS          38KTS          38KTS
DSHP        45KTS          45KTS          38KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.7N LONCUR =  21.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  17.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =   9.3N LONM24 =  13.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


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#2 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:37 pm

Are these the latest models?
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Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:40 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:Are these the latest models?


Yes,the first run by the tropical models. Now we wait for the first run by GFDL and HWRF after midnight EDT. Then come the global models like GFS and ECMWF among that group.
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#4 Postby Caribwxgirl » Fri Sep 16, 2011 8:50 pm

Ok thanks I'll look out for those. Hopefully it won't head your way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:33 pm

00z GFS has a low rider at 144 hours,but without much development so far.

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:45 pm

At 192 hours is almost on the coast of Venezuela,but developing a little bit. From now is fantasyland. :)

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#7 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:14 am

What's that other low I see in the graphic that seems to be headed north?
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#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:25 am

I was wondering the same, a tropical storm that far north would be killed by shear in one second basically.

Tropical Models from 06Z

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 170539

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0539 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  0600   110917  1800   110918  0600   110918  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  21.3W   11.0N  23.4W   11.1N  25.7W   11.3N  28.6W
BAMD    10.8N  21.3W   11.0N  23.4W   11.1N  25.4W   11.2N  27.4W
BAMM    10.8N  21.3W   11.1N  23.3W   11.0N  25.5W   10.9N  28.0W
LBAR    10.8N  21.3W   11.3N  23.5W   11.8N  25.8W   12.3N  28.6W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  0600   110920  0600   110921  0600   110922  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  31.8W   14.3N  40.1W   16.1N  48.8W   17.5N  56.6W
BAMD    11.6N  29.7W   14.0N  34.7W   16.5N  40.0W   18.3N  44.0W
BAMM    11.2N  30.9W   12.9N  37.2W   13.7N  44.6W   12.9N  52.2W
LBAR    12.8N  31.5W   14.8N  37.1W   17.1N  41.8W   15.1N  45.1W
SHIP        39KTS          42KTS          36KTS          36KTS
DSHP        39KTS          42KTS          36KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR =  21.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  10.4N LONM12 =  19.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  15.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:35 am

The 00z ECMWF develops 97L and moves it towards the northern Leewards at 168 hours. After that,it vanishes.

Image
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Re:

#10 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:37 am

Those models that show modest development (some models show no development) also show this fizzling out once you go beyond 72 hours...

Image

Extratropical94 wrote:I was wondering the same, a tropical storm that far north would be killed by shear in one second basically.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 7:52 am

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 171235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SAT SEP 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110917 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110917  1200   110918  0000   110918  1200   110919  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  20.0W   10.7N  22.0W   10.8N  24.7W   11.1N  28.1W
BAMD    10.3N  20.0W   10.4N  22.2W   10.3N  24.4W   10.1N  26.6W
BAMM    10.3N  20.0W   10.5N  22.1W   10.5N  24.6W   10.5N  27.5W
LBAR    10.3N  20.0W   10.6N  22.1W   10.7N  24.6W   10.9N  27.3W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110919  1200   110920  1200   110921  1200   110922  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  31.9W   14.4N  41.0W   16.5N  49.7W   17.8N  57.7W
BAMD    10.2N  29.1W   11.3N  34.1W   13.2N  39.7W   14.8N  44.9W
BAMM    10.9N  30.6W   12.7N  37.3W   14.6N  44.5W   15.2N  51.6W
LBAR    11.2N  30.2W   12.8N  36.1W   14.5N  42.1W   15.1N  45.9W
SHIP        36KTS          39KTS          34KTS          31KTS
DSHP        36KTS          39KTS          34KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.3N LONCUR =  20.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  10.1N LONM12 =  18.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  16.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:41 am

Another run by GFS (12z) doing the same,and that is after 97L crosses the Lesser Antilles,it shoots northward.

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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Adoquín » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:48 am

12z south to north near ceiba/vieques area at 216.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:53 pm

12z Canadian. Waiting for the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby bg1 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Canadian. Waiting for the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


It also develops 5 weak storms and a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific... :lol: I don't know about that.
Last edited by bg1 on Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:09 pm

12z Euro develops it but is a non threat to Caribbean.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECM ... floop.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby bg1 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Euro develops it but is a non threat to Caribbean.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ECM ... floop.html


What is that feature near Canada in four days? I saw this in the CMC run too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:42 pm

There is a trough digging down in the mid atlantic near 40w. Looks like it has already dropped down through 25 N. Unless 97L stays weak it might get pulled north some by that feature. At the very least that trough should provide some shear. Not even sure what the models are doing with that first trough to say nothing of what would happen if it makes it to the eastern Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:30 pm

http://tropics.hamweather.com/images/tr ... models.jpg



Hamweather 97L models.

I like this site :darrow:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:47 pm

Interesting upper air pattern setting up according to ECM and CMC in 7 days. In response to a deep cut off mid-level low drifting south over the lower Miss valley, 500 mb heights rise dramatically over the SW atlantic. We haven't seen this setup all season, as the longwave trough axis over the US is progged to migrate to around 90W rather than 80W as its been all summer. This might put the caribbean islands at risk, especially if 97L stays weak over the next 2-3 days. Here's the 12z CMC loop that shows 97L on a path to the LA.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGGEMLoop.html
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